Will Tinubu Return for a Second Term? – By Omotade Makinwa

That was the post I came across, and someone under it said Asiwaju would not only return but would even win Nasarawa State in the next election.

Now, I am a very optimistic person, and if you know me well, you also know that I am deeply realistic in the way I analyze politics. Based on my current logical assessment of the political landscape, I honestly do not see President Tinubu winning Nasarawa State for now.

Of course, seven to eight months is a very long time in politics. Alliances shift, sentiments change, structures collapse, and unexpected events can completely alter the direction of an election. But as things stand today, I do not think he is likely to win Nasarawa, though I believe he will still pull very significant numbers there.

And if both Atiku Abubakar and President Bola Ahmed Tinubu return to the ballot in 2027, then the real battle for dominance will most likely be concentrated in the North-East and parts of the North-West.

However, by overall popular vote, political structure, and electoral spread, I still see Bola Ahmed Tinubu emerging victorious again.

Let us do a bit of political arithmetic so you can understand why I hold this position.

If the three major candidates from the last election return to the ballot, then the political map will most likely shape itself again along familiar regional, emotional, and ideological lines.

You will most likely have Atiku Abubakar maintaining a stronghold across much of the North-East and parts of the North-West, though not necessarily across all northern voting blocs.

Then you will have Peter Obi retaining an overwhelmingly dominant hold in the South-East, with pockets of influence in parts of the South-South and some northern states, especially areas with stronger Christian demographics, urban youth populations, and ideologically driven voters. Forget Kwankaso, aside Kano, he doesn’t has any influence in any other state and that number he used to pull from previous election are already fractioned, and his ticket as vice is not an exciting one to the north.

Then comes Bola Ahmed Tinubu, with what I believe will remain a very strong South-West base, significant influence across many parts of the South-South, and notable strength in the North-Central.

Beyond that, he will still retain enough numbers across the North-West and North-East to secure the constitutionally required spread.

And this is where many people still fail to understand Nigerian politics emotionally versus structurally.

Some of the people I avoid debating politics with are those who hold the absolute belief that Peter Obi won the last election. Each time I hear that argument presented with complete certainty, I simply move on because it reveals a lack of deeper political understanding about how Nigerian elections are actually won.

Elections in Nigeria are not decided by social media energy, emotional attachment, crowd noise, or online outrage. They are decided by structure, coalition-building, spread, negotiation, strategic alliances, voter distribution, and institutional political machinery.

The North-West and North-East are not regions any serious presidential candidate can afford to ignore. These two zones alone carry enormous electoral weight, and if both Atiku Abubakar and Bola Ahmed Tinubu aggressively compete there, it automatically leaves far smaller margins for Peter Obi within those regions.

And in a country like Nigeria, elections are not won merely by passion or regional loyalty. They are won through national acceptability across multiple blocs at the same time.

That is why, regardless of sentiments or even my personal support for the president, I still believe strongly and convincingly that by electoral mathematics, national spread, political structure, and political strength and sagacity, Bola Ahmed Tinubu will emerge victorious again if the same major contenders return to the ballot.

There are also many other factors beyond raw political mathematics, deeply rooted regional sentiments, power retention psychology, elite alliances, and national stability calculations, which further position the president as the candidate many political stakeholders may still prefer power to remain with.

Maybe some other time, when I’m in the mood, I’ll write extensively about those dynamics.

But for now, all I’ll tell you is this:

Get your PVC. We voting again in 2027.

God bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.