Quartus Economics: Nigeria’s GDP Growing Faster than Population, Signaling Early Gains against Poverty

Nigeria’s economy is showing early signs of a turnaround, with output now expanding faster than population growth — a development that could mark the beginning of sustained poverty reduction if maintained.

This is the central message of a new report released by Quartus Economics, which highlights a sharp rebound in the country’s economic performance in 2025 after a difficult 2024.

According to the economic research firm, Nigeria’s gross domestic product (GDP) measured in US dollars rose from $252.1 billion in 2024 to $307.5 billion in 2025, representing a 21.98 percent increase. On a per-person basis, GDP climbed 19.5 percent from $1,083 to $1,295 over the same period, despite continued population growth.

In naira terms, the nominal GDP grew from N372.8 trillion in 2024 to N441.5 trillion in 2025.

The report draws on official data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and exchange rate figures from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), alongside comparative data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

GROWTH FINALLY OUTPACING POPULATION

A key highlight of the findings is that Nigeria’s economic growth is now exceeding its demographic expansion—a reversal of a long-standing trend that has historically undermined improvements in living standards.

Nigeria’s population grew by about 2.1 percent in 2025, adding an estimated 4.8 million people. However, with GDP expanding by nearly 22 percent in dollar terms, average economic output per person still rose significantly.

“For years, Nigeria struggled to grow its economy faster than its population,” the report noted. “That pattern has now reversed, creating a pathway for meaningful reductions in poverty.”

Between 2020 and 2023, the economy grew by less than 1 percent cumulatively, while population increased by over 10 percent. In contrast, between 2024 and 2025, economic output expanded by more than 8 per cent, compared to population growth of about 4.25 percent.

STRONGER CURRENCY, HIGHER OUTPUT

The report attributes the improved performance to a combination of increased production and modest currency strengthening. Nigeria’s nominal GDP rose from N372.8 trillion  in 2024 to N441.5 trillion in 2025 — an 18.43 percent increase.

At the same time, the naira appreciated by about 3 per cent on average, moving from N1,479 per dollar in 2024 to N1,436 in 2025. This dual effect boosted the country’s GDP when measured in US dollars, a key benchmark for global comparisons.

Economists say the stability of the currency is particularly important for household welfare, as it helps preserve real incomes and asset values.

OUTPERFORMING REGIONAL PEERS

Nigeria’s growth also compares favourably with many economies in Sub-Saharan Africa. While the region recorded an average GDP growth of 10.33 percent in dollar terms and 7.66 percent in per capita terms, Nigeria’s figures were significantly higher.

Among major African economies, only Ghana posted stronger gains, with GDP growth of 37.7 percent. Nigeria outpaced countries such as South Africa, Egypt, Algeria, Kenya, and Morocco in both overall and per capita growth.

The trend extends beyond the continent. Nigeria’s GDP expansion exceeded that of several emerging markets, including Bangladesh, Indonesia, Thailand, and Mexico, according to the report.

IMPLICATIONS FOR POVERTY REDUCTION

While the report cautions that poverty levels remain high, it points to “modest but clear signs of progress” driven by three key factors: currency stability, rising economic output, and improved alignment between population and GDP growth.

“Prosperity is not determined by fiat,” the think tank said, noting that sustained gains depend on maintaining macroeconomic stability and continued expansion in productive sectors.

Currency stability, in particular, was identified as a critical driver. In previous years, sharp devaluations eroded incomes and worsened poverty. The recent steadiness of the naira, the report argues, creates a more supportive environment for wealth creation and improved living standards.

‘CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM’

Despite the positive trajectory, Quartus Economics emphasised that Nigeria’s per capita income remains below historical highs and lags behind several peer economies. However, the direction of change is encouraging.

“There is clear evidence that Nigeria’s economic fortune is once again on the rise,” the report concluded. “This time, the lift can, and must, be sustained.”

Analysts say the coming years will test whether the country can consolidate these gains and translate macroeconomic improvements into tangible reductions in poverty across its rapidly growing population.