Tinubu’s allies in Osun and Rivers are cooperating on his presidential campaign while competing for other offices. Atiku and Obi remain on separate tickets as Kwankwaso urges the ADC candidate to step aside.
Political rivals in Osun unveiled 30 vehicles for President Bola Tinubu’s campaign on 31 October. Governor Ademola Adeleke’s message to the gathering carried a condition: the partners would campaign separately for their legislative candidates.
Days earlier, the Rainbow Coalition in Rivers presented candidates drawn from the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and endorsed Mr Tinubu. The PDP’s governorship candidate backed the arrangement even though his party has a presidential candidate.
The week ending 1 November brought campaign resources and endorsements for the incumbent from outside his party, alongside disagreements about how that cooperation should work.
Atiku Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and Peter Obi of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) continued building separate campaigns. Mr Obi’s running mate, Rabiu Kwankwaso, publicly urged Atiku on Sunday to support their ticket.
Tinubu’s allies remain rivals for legislative seats
The Osun gathering brought together representatives of Mr Adeleke, an Accord governor, and Adegboyega Oyetola, the APC minister and former governor.
The vehicles were donated by Government Ekpemupolo, popularly known as Tompolo, according to reports of the event.
Deputy Governor Kola Adewusi, reading Mr Adeleke’s address, said the parties had no agreement on legislative elections. Mr Oyetola’s address, delivered by Bola Oyebamiji, urged support for APC legislative candidates alongside the president.
That difference will confront voters on 16 January, when the presidential, Senate and House of Representatives elections are scheduled.
A supporter following Mr Adeleke’s instructions would choose the APC for president and Accord for the National Assembly.
In interviews reported by Sunday PUNCH on 1 November, Osun Assembly Speaker Adewale Egbedun, who chairs the forum of Accord legislative candidates, acknowledged challenges in persuading voters to support their presidential choice. He said engagement and persuasion could address them.
An unnamed legislative candidate worried that voters might mark the same party on all three ballots. Some APC candidates feared Mr Adeleke’s involvement would strengthen Accord. APC lawmaker Wole Oke rejected that assessment, citing his experience winning elections from opposition platforms.
The reports identify Tompolo as the donor of the 30 vehicles but do not establish their monetary value, who will retain ownership or how the contribution will be declared under electoral spending rules.
Rivers offers a different arrangement.
At the 27 October event promoted by Federal Capital Territory Minister Nyesom Wike, the coalition adopted APC candidate Kingsley Chinda for governor and selected APC and PDP candidates for legislative seats.
Governor Siminalayi Fubara and the PDP’s governorship candidate, Ejekwu Samuel Soni, also endorsed the arrangement.
According to a candidate list published by TheCable, the APC accounted for two of the three senatorial candidates, 10 of the 13 House of Representatives candidates and 21 of the 32 state assembly candidates. The remaining places went to PDP candidates.
Yet INEC’s updated presidential list still names Sandy Onor for the PDP.
The party label on the ballot therefore cannot, on its own, tell voters which presidential candidate a local PDP politician is supporting.
History offers a caution against assuming that endorsements determine electoral outcomes. In 2023, Mr Obi won Anambra for the Labour Party while the state was governed by the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA).
The 2023 results also explain why Osun and Rivers feature prominently in the current campaign arrangements.
Atiku defeated Mr Tinubu in Osun by 10,421 votes. In Rivers, Mr Tinubu finished first, followed by Mr Obi.
The current alignments differ from those of 2023. Atiku is campaigning with Rotimi Amaechi, a former Rivers governor, while Mr Wike is organising for Mr Tinubu.
Those previous results provide a historical comparison, not a measure of current support. The new alliances involve different parties, candidates and campaign organisations.
Kwankwaso states obstacle to common opposition ticket
The four highest-polling presidential candidates in 2023 are now distributed across three tickets for 2027.
On Sunday in Kano, Mr Kwankwaso urged Atiku to support Mr Obi, arguing that the South should complete its turn under the informal rotation of the presidency.
He presented his acceptance of the vice-presidential nomination as a sacrifice consistent with that position.
His intervention identified the disagreement facing advocates of a common opposition ticket: which presidential candidate would give way.
Atiku remains the ADC nominee. The Obi–Kwankwaso ticket has combined two former presidential candidacies, but the political organisations supporting them still have to coordinate their activities.
The disagreement also follows earlier exchanges over G100-facilitated alliance talks, during which the ADC said it had not authorised negotiations requiring Atiku to withdraw.
The NDC entered the week with a 155-member campaign council chaired by Seriake Dickson, with Mr Obi as co-chairman and Ibrahim Abdulkarim as director-general.
On 26 October, the independent OK Movement challenged the council’s grassroots reach. The party had previously disowned a separate council established by the support group.
That dispute concerns authority over an existing campaign organisation. The national council’s membership figure does not establish how many local campaigners or polling-unit agents it can coordinate.
INEC’s electronic polling-agent portal gives parties until 10 December to submit their nominations for the presidential election. Access codes are issued through national party chairpersons, requiring coordination between party headquarters and officials responsible for uploading agents’ details.
ADC’s campaign structure remains disputed
For Atiku, the immediate organisational disagreement concerns the involvement of established South-west ADC officials in his campaign.
A Sunday PUNCH investigation reported complaints by some South-west ADC officials that Atiku was relying on personal associates rather than established party structures to organise campaign activities in the region. Some officials said decisions were being taken without adequate consultation with state party leaders.
In his Sunday response to PREMIUM TIMES, campaign spokesperson Phrank Shaibu said none of the six South-west state campaign councils had been formally inaugurated. He confirmed that nominations had been requested but could not provide a verified consolidated record of submissions from the six states. No date had been announced for the appointments.
On Monday, South-west Vice Chairman Akin Omole and the six state chairpersons reaffirmed their support for Atiku. They said a 4 September meeting concerned election strategy and denied holding the virtual reconciliation meeting described in the report.
In a Monday telephone interview with PREMIUM TIMES, National Publicity Secretary Bolaji Abdullahi also rejected claims of an institutional South-west crisis.
Asked about his absence and that of National Secretary Rauf Aregbesola from the campaign council, he said national officers had continuing party responsibilities and could support the candidate without council appointments.
Mr Abdullahi’s explanation addresses why national party officers need not serve on the presidential campaign council, while Mr Shaibu’s response establishes that the six South-west state campaign councils had not been inaugurated. Neither response resolves the separate complaints about how established party officials are being involved in campaign activities before those appointments.
Separately, a faction of the ADC led by Nafiu Gombe announced a North-west campaign council following a meeting in Sokoto. It named Nuradeen Chindo as chairman and Bello Shehu as secretary.
The faction’s announcement did not alter Atiku’s presidential nomination. His campaign is being organised by the ADC leadership headed by David Mark. The faction’s authority to act on behalf of the party remains disputed.
The competing organisational claims have practical consequences for campaign coordination, particularly the deployment of local organisers and polling agents.
Power supply and cost of campaign promises
Electricity produced a direct policy exchange on Sunday.
The APC defended Mr Tinubu’s record, citing metering and sector reforms. Atiku proposed replacing the tariff-band system with pricing more closely tied to electricity actually supplied.
Mr Obi’s 29 October promise in Enugu addressed supply: generating, transmitting and distributing at least 10,000 megawatts.
For scale, the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission’s September operational factsheet put average hourly generation from grid-connected plants at approximately 4,089MW.
That measures actual generation rather than installed capacity.
Mr Obi has not provided a detailed account of how the additional electricity would be generated and delivered through the existing transmission and distribution networks. Atiku has yet to provide a tariff formula or explain how electricity providers would recover their costs. For Mr Tinubu, regulatory figures on metering, service hours and electricity supplied provide a basis for examining the APC’s claims.
Mr Tinubu’s 30 October defence of borrowing linked loans to roads, ports and power investments intended to expand production.
Identifying completed projects, disbursements and debt-servicing obligations would provide a clearer basis for examining that argument.
Atiku’s fuel policy also differs from his 2023 proposal.
In a written reply to PREMIUM TIMES received on 31 October, Mr Shaibu said the earlier programme proposed phased subsidy removal.
The revised proposal targets fuel refined in Nigeria, with support intended to encourage domestic production and improve affordability.
“The 2023 proposals should not be treated as the final or current version of his programme,” he said.
Mr Shaibu said the wider presidential framework was under final review and expected to share it before the following weekend.
Mr Abdullahi separately supplied the ADC’s 2027–2031 party manifesto to PREMIUM TIMES on 1 November. Mr Shaibu’s undertaking concerned the candidate’s revised presidential framework.
PREMIUM TIMES has previously examined the proposed production subsidy, including its financing, pricing and legal implications.
Oyo Governor Seyi Makinde, the Allied Peoples Movement candidate, said in Enugu on 29 October that his manifesto would be unveiled on 4 November. He said consultations across the six geopolitical zones would inform its proposals.
A separate discrepancy concerns the federal government’s ₦50,000 relief programme.
One official announcement described monthly support, while the programme’s published frequently asked questions described a one-off grant.
The two commitments imply different expenditure, and beneficiaries have yet to receive a consistent explanation of what they should expect.
The contradiction was also examined in PREMIUM TIMES’ Saturday politics roundup.
Campaign access and register remain contested
The ADC’s planned Sokoto campaign launch has been accompanied by allegations of political intimidation and restrictions on campaign activities.
The party alleged that personnel linked to the state government attacked the convoy of its governorship candidate, Manir Dan’iya, near the airport on 30 October. The APC disputed allegations of political intimidation, while police said they were investigating.
The ADC also accused the state government of pressuring hotel operators to cancel accommodation arrangements for campaign delegates. The government denied issuing such instructions, while the APC linked accommodation difficulties to a traditional title ceremony.
On 2 November, the Sokoto State Government sealed an ADC campaign office, citing an ownership dispute and security concerns.
Lands Commissioner Nasiru Dantsoho said official records identified Savannah Bank as the property’s owner and that the government had written to the Nigeria Deposit Insurance Corporation for clarification. He said the building would remain sealed pending a response.
The ownership claim and the legal basis for the closure have not been independently established from the relevant property documents. The ADC’s response to the sealing had not been confirmed at the time of this review.
In Ekiti, police announced 11 arrests following an incident involving African Action Congress presidential candidate Omoyele Sowore.
The AAC alleged that its candidate was attacked and also alleged government involvement.
INEC also faced demands to account for irregular voter-registration records.
Atiku called for an independent forensic audit and the preservation of digital evidence, while the NDC questioned reports of deceased persons remaining on the register.
In an interview broadcast on Sunday, INEC ICT Director Lawrence Bayode said the commission had identified irregular registrations and was compiling evidence against implicated officials.
According to PREMIUM TIMES’ account of the interview, he said 1,277,252 invalid registrations had been removed before publication of the preliminary register. Other flagged records remained subject to examination.
The figure represents invalid registrations, not a verified count of AI-generated voter identities.
INEC is scheduled to publish the final register on 15 December.
The commission has yet to publicly account in sufficient detail for how the irregular entries were introduced, the disciplinary action taken, or the safeguards against eligible voters being wrongly removed.
The week ahead
The Sokoto ADC chapter announced 4 November for Atiku’s campaign launch. Former Governor Aminu Tambuwal said on Saturday that the event would proceed.
When interviewed by PREMIUM TIMES on Monday, however, Mr Abdullahi could not definitively confirm the date or venue, citing security concerns.
Mr Makinde has announced his manifesto presentation for 4 November.
In Rivers, Mr Wike has scheduled a Tinubu presidential rally for 7 November at the Adokiye Amiesimaka Stadium, in the home state of Atiku’s running mate.
The ADC’s Sokoto launch remains subject to uncertainty over its arrangements. Atiku’s revised policy framework is also expected before the following weekend.
*** PT State of the Race is PREMIUM TIMES’ weekly analysis of the 2027 presidential contest. This is the maiden edition.
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