The exchange rate between the naira and dollar depreciated to N410.25/$1 at the official NAFEX window on December 31st, 2020 ending a tumultuous year for the currency market.

At N410.25/$1, the exchange rate officially depreciated by 11.8% for 2020 at the official NAFEX  window of the FMDQOTC where forex is traded by investors and exporters. In line with accounting standards, companies across Nigeria who have dollars in their bank accounts will convert their balances to naira using N410.25/$1.

Another Devaluation

Nairametrics first reported earlier in the day that the exchange rate may have been devalued to N410/$1 at the official I&E Window when trades crossed above N410 in mid-day trading, signifying a possible devaluation of the naira.

• The official exchange rate quoted on the website of the central bank remains at N379/$1 as of December 31st, 2020, and is yet to be updated. The FMDQOTC website however updated their closing rate to N410.25/$1 as at close of business December 31st, 2020.
• The highest price on the day was N412.05 while forex turnover on the day was $235.75 million rose. Nigeria’s external reserve increases by $515 million in 12 days, rising from $34.841 billion as of 18 December 2020, to $35.356 billion as of 30 December 2020.
• Information reaching Nairametrics suggests there was a surge in demand pressure during trading forcing authorities to allow trades to cross higher than N410/$1 and settling at this price by closing.
• The exchange rate at the parallel market closed at N470/$1 for anyone selling marking a disparity of about N60 with the official rates.

What happens in the new year

The central bank is yet to update its exchange rate figure on its website and did not issue any circular reflecting any official adjustments for the exchange rate.

• We also understand that the latest round of adjustment at the I&E window is temporary as the rates could fall back below N400/$1.
• The latest devaluation is likely to trigger another round of uncertainty for the currency market that has remained disconnected from the reality in the parallel market.
• With the exchange rate disparity at N60, we believe another round of devaluation could be in the offing with our analyst estimates placing at between N430-N440/$1.
• Already, foreign currency wire transfers (which is not always captured by black market rates) in the millions of dollars exchange for as high as N480/$1
• The World Bank has also compelled the CBN to unify the multiple exchange rates suggesting that rates at other windows will likely adjust closer to the NAFEX as early as next week (assuming this rate remains).

Nigeria’s Devaluation Story

The central bank has now devalued the exchange rate at least three times this year at the official investors’ and exporters’ window as it strives to bridge the disparity between the official and parallel market rates.

• The first devaluation occurred on March 20th when the exchange rate went from N307 to about N360 on the NAFEX market
• The second occurred on August 6th when it went from N360 to N380 to the dollar respectively.
• The I&E window has often recorded Naira devaluation ahead of the CBN official rate.
• Nigeria maintains multiple exchange rate windows with rates that are marginally different.

Chike Olisah is a graduate of accountancy with over 15 years working experience in the financial service sector. He has worked in research and marketing departments of three top commercial banks. Chike is a senior member of the Nairametrics Editorial Team. You may contact him via his email- chike.olisah@nairametrics.com.

Currencies

Nigeria’s forex devaluation timeline – 2020

Speculations started March 12 that the naira might be devalued. This is a timeline of every decision taken since the first devaluation.

January 1, 2021

Since the first quarter of the year, Nigeria has faced an exchange rate crisis triggered by the drop in oil prices. It started after two of the world’s largest oil producers, Saudi Arabia and Russia, disagreed on how to proceed concerning oil supply cuts, which triggered a price war that pushed oil prices to crash to as low as under zero dollars.

In March, the world fully became aware of the existential threat that was the Covid-19 pandemic, which has since affected millions of people globally and killed hundreds of thousands. These twin events have had a telling effect on Nigeria’s economy. As an economy highly dependent on crude, the oil price war meant Nigeria earned less from crude oil sales cascading to an even larger problem – Forex.

With oil prices down, pressure on Nigeria’s exchange rate grew, leading to speculations of a devaluation to reflect the true value of the naira. Thus began one of the most significant deluges of policy pronouncements and flip flops on the management of Nigeria’s foreign currency.

In this tracker, Nairametrics collates a timeline of all the forex-related policy decisions and denials that have occurred since March 2020. This timeline is updated regularly as new information becomes available.

December 02, 2020

Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) issued an update to its recent circular on the management of remittances from diaspora Nigerians. In a circular posted on its website, the apex bank instructed banks to transfer all diaspora remittances to the domiciliary accounts of the beneficiaries or pay the customers in foreign currency.

On payment of foreign transfers, it also clarified that the choice of how the money should be paid, whether transfer or dollar cash withdrawal, was left to the beneficiary of the remittance.

The circular also instructed the IMTOs to ensure the foreign currency was deposited into their corresponding deposit money bank accounts. It also confirmed banks were to pay the dollars to the beneficiaries either via transfers to domiciliary accounts or in cash.

November 30, 2020

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) announced the amendment of procedures for receipt of diaspora remittances in an apparent and frantic attempt to improve liquidity in the forex market and reduce the disparity between the black market and official I&E window.

The disclosure was made in a circular issued by the CBN on Monday, November 30, 2020, to all authorized dealers and the general public, and signed by its Director for Trade and Exchange Department, Dr O.S. Nnaji.

In the new amended procedure, CBN stated that beneficiaries of Diaspora Remittances through International Money Transfer Operators (IMTOs) would thenceforth receive such inflows in foreign currency (US Dollars) through the designated bank of their choice.

November 18, 2020

Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), in a new circular, clarified its position on the removal of third parties from buying of foreign exchange routed through Form M, letters of credit, and other forms of payment

While reiterating its earlier directive that destination payment for all forms M, letters of credit, and other forms of payment should be made directly to the ‘Ultimate Supplier of Products,’ it gave conditions that must be met by importers if they chose to use a buying company other than the primary manufacturer.

That was disclosed in a circular with Reference number TED/FEM/FPC/GEN/01/009, which was issued by the CBN to all authorized dealers and the general public on November 18, 2020, and signed by its Director for Trade and Exchange, Dr. O. S. Nnaji. The circular was a follow up to one earlier issued by the apex bank on the same subject matter in August 2020.

November 17, 2020

The Federal Government announced plans to make foreign exchange available to petroleum product marketers, in order to make the importation of petrol into the country competitive, reduce the rising cost of the product, and stop the overdependence on the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) for its importation.

The disclosure was made by the National President of Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), Chinedu Okonkwo, after the oil marketers had met with officials of the Federal Ministry of Finance on the need to make the foreign exchange available for petrol imports.

November 11, 2020

The naira remained stable against the dollar, closing at N465/$1 at the parallel market, as Bureau De Change operators got another round of dollar supply from the Central Bank of Nigeria.

November 03, 2020

The naira remained stable against the dollar, closing at N463/$1 at the parallel market on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as BDCs got another round of dollar supply from CBN.

That was also as businesses that were shut down due to the outbreak of violence in Lagos and some parts of the country during the protests against the special anti-robbery unit (SARS) and police brutality by the Nigerian youths got back to full activity.

October 16, 2020

Banks limited foreign exchange transactions by both individuals and corporate organizations on the unofficial black market to curb speculation.

That was despite the continuation of the protest against the special anti-robbery unit (SARS) by the Nigerian youth which limited movement in major cities across the country, especially Lagos.

October 7, 2020

The CBN sold over $450 million to BDCs since the resumed forex sales on Monday, September 7, 2020. That was expected to inject more liquidity to the retail end of the foreign exchange market and discourage hoarding and speculation.

However, the exchange rate against the dollar failed to sustain the initial gains made, after the CBN announced plans to provide liquidity.

BDC operators urged the apex bank to reconsider the margin allowed for the currency traders, as it was inadequate to meet their expenses.

September 25, 2020

The CBN sold over $200 million to BDCs since the resumed forex sales on Monday, September 7, 2020. It was expected to inject more liquidity to the retail end of the foreign exchange market, and discourage hoarding and speculation.

However, the exchange rate against the dollar failed to sustain the initial gains made, after the CBN announced plans to provide liquidity.

BDC operators urged the apex bank to reconsider the margin allowed for the currency traders, as it was inadequate to meet their expenses.

September 12, 2020

The World Bank expressed reservations about the Foreign Exchange measures rolled out by the Central Bank of Nigeria. The multilateral bank urged the CBN to intensify its efforts towards easing the pressure on the country’s FX market.

That was disclosed by the World Bank’s country director, Shubham Chaudhuri, via email to an inquiry by Bloomberg.

Chaudhuri said, “stronger action and a clear commitment from the CBN would go a long way towards facilitating a stronger recovery, despite its recent resumption of dollar sales to the BDCs after a 5-month suspension.”

September 11,2020

The presidency explained why President Muhammadu Buhari had ordered the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to stop making available, foreign exchange to importers of fertilizer and food item, despite criticisms from some FX analysts and stakeholders.

It revealed that the move by the president to suspend the allocation of foreign exchange for food and fertilizer imports was an action borne out of patriotism.

The disclosure was made by the Senior Special Assistant to the President on Media and Publicity, Garba Shehu, when he appeared as a guest, on Channels Television’s Sunrise Program, on Friday September 11, 2020.

September 6, 2020

A memo circulating online indicated that the Central Bank had instructed banks to Post-No-Debit on the accounts of 38 companies.

A Post-No-Debit (PND) is basically an instruction to banks not to allow any withdrawal or transfer from the bank account of account owners, essentially blocking the account from outflows. It is usually drastic a measure taken to allow for investigation and possible reclaiming of any illegal inflow into an account.

The CBN did not state why the accounts were flagged, but sources informed Nairametrics that it was due to suspicion of forex infractions.

September 3, 2020

Nigeria’s central bank pumped in $50 million into the FX market on Monday in a bid to test demand and supply and more importantly, the price of naira against the dollar.

$50 million was sold to foreign investors on the spot and forward market in what it termed a “test trade to gauge the level of dollar demand” in the market.

August 28, 2020

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) barred operators of Payment Service Banks (PSBs) from accepting foreign exchange deposits and to accept any closed scheme electronic value (airtime) as a form of deposit or payment.

This was disclosed by the apex bank in the reviewed guidelines for licensing and regulations of PSBs released on its website.

August 27, 2020

Nigeria’s Central Bank issued a circular authorizing and instructing dealers to sell forex to end users at N386/$1.

In a circular titled, “Weekly Exchange Rate for Disbursement of Proceeds of International Money Transfer Service Operations” the apex bank detailed the applicable exchange rate of proceeds of IMTOs for the period, August 31, 2020.

August 26, 2020

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) vowed to go tough on exporters who were guilty of forex non-repatriation. It was part of the CBN’s ongoing efforts to resolve the prevalent forex crisis in the country by increasing forex liquidity.

To that end, the CBN directed banks to submit the names, addresses, and Bank Verification Numbers (BVNs) of all the exporters who had failed to repatriate their export proceeds. Necessary ‘action’ would be taken against such defaulters, the CBN said in a statement.

The statement further noted that the Central Bank Governor, Godwin Emefiele, gave the directive on August 25, 2020, while virtually attending a Bankers’ Committee meeting.

August 24, 2020

Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) issued a circular removing buying agents/companies or any third party from accessing its SMIS forex window through FORM M forex purchases.

In a circular dated August 24, 2020, the apex bank instructed that “Authorized Dealers are herby directed to desist from the opening of Form M whose payment is routed through a buying company/agent or any other third parties” effectively eliminating third parties or middlemen from transacting in forex deals in its official SMIS window.”

August 6th, 2020

Information on the website of the CBN revealed the apex bank had adjusted the official exchange rate to N380/$1 from N360.1/$1. The adjustment occurred on Thursday, August 6th, 2020.

It suggested the CBN might have unified the exchange rate in line with the promise made by the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria.

July 13, 2020

CBN restricted access for the importation of maize through the official CBN forex window.

It hinged its decision on the need ‘to increase local production, stimulate a rapid economic recovery, safeguard rural livelihoods and increase jobs which were lost as a result of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.’

July 3, 2020

CBN reportedly instructed bidders at its Secondary Market Intervention Sales (SMIS) to increase their bidding price to N380/$1 floor. The SMIS is the market where importers bid for forex using Letters of Credit and Forms M.

The apex bank allegedly informed banks that they would only accept bids from N380/$1 and above, and no longer N360/$1 meaning those who bid lower will not get any forex allocation.

Transaction success in this market is based on bids with those who bid higher than the floor as they are often in an advantageous position to secure forex.

June 23, 2020

The Governor of the Central Bank, Godwin Emefiele, confirmed that the CBN would continue to pursue unification around its Nafex rate. The NAFEX rate is the forex window where Investors and Exporters transact dollars on market-determined prices. The CBN Governor said this at an Investors Conference with the Federal Government of Nigeria by CitiBank.

May 21, 2020

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Godwin Emefiele, warned businesses and individuals against patronizing the parallel market, popularly called the black market.

He warned them to stop using black markets for foreign currency exchange, following the liquidity crisis triggered by low oil prices and a shortage of dollars.

May 19, 2020

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), in its quest to stabilize Naira injected funds to the currency market through the Wholesale Secondary Market Interventions.

The auction was earlier put on hold by the CBN due to the COVID-19 pandemic and dwindling foreign exchange reserves standing at less than $34 billion.

May 18, 2020

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) tasked industrial conglomerates operating in the country to support efforts of the government to grow the nation’s economy and return it to its green days.

The CBN boss warned that the apex bank would not support the importation of items that could be produced in Nigeria. According to him, the bank could not spend its foreign exchange reserves on what would not boost the economy and generate jobs for Nigerians.

May 10, 2020

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) assured foreign investors that repatriating their funds from the country was secured, despite forex related revenue shortages due to the drop from the sale of crude oil globally.

In the statement, CBN Governor, Godwin Emefiele explained that the apex bank had put in place policies to ensure an orderly exit for those that might be interested in doing so and also urged investors to be patient as such repatriations were processed, owing to the Bank’s policy of orderly exit of investments.

April 29, 2020

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) resumed sales of dollars to SMEs that needed foreign exchange for essential imports, as well as Nigerian students in foreign schools who needed to pay their school fees.

According to a brief statement that was signed by the CBN’s Director of Corporate Communications, Isaac Okoroafor, the apex bank provided over $100 million per week for the two categories of dollar consumers mentioned above.

April 27, 2020

CBN adjusted the exchange rate for import duty payment from N326/$ to N361/$.

With that development, the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) was directed to effect an increase in duty payable on cargoes imported through the ports.

March 27, 2020

Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), in a note issued to Bureau De Change operators (BDCs) in the country, suspended the sales of foreign currency for two weeks.

However, it did not affect dollar transactions in the Investors & Exporters (I&E) window. Thus, portfolio investors, as well as businesses that still required FX for foreign transactions settlement, could access the I&E window.

March 24, 2020

The CBN announced it was collaborating with the Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU) to uncover speculation and would charge such dealers for economic sabotage. The bank added that market fundamentals did not support devaluation.

March 22, 2020

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) halted the sale of dollars to the Nigerian National Petroleum Commission (NNPC) by oil companies, including International Oil Companies (IOCs) that operated within the shores of the country.

The apex bank explained that the move to stop the sale of dollars was in line with its commitment to improving foreign exchange supply to the economy as the impact of the novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic bit harder on the economy.

March 20, 2020

Central Bank of Nigeria devalued its official exchange rate from N307/$1 to N360/$1. The apex bank reflected this change on its website, signaling a confirmation.

March 10, 2020

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) fined Bureau De Change (BDC) operators over various infractions in the foreign exchange market.

Over 100 BDC operators were fined N5 million each for various infractions in the foreign exchange market.

March 12, 2020

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) debunked speculations making the rounds which suggested that the naira was finally about to be devalued.

According to a statement, the apex bank blamed “unscrupulous players in the foreign exchange market” for spreading the rumour.

The exchange rate between the naira and the US dollar for today (Thursday, December 31st 2020), closed at ₦460/US$1 in the parallel market. The rate had also closed at ₦460/US$1 on Wednesday, December 30th 2020.

• Naira: ₦460
• Dollar: $1
• Date: December 31st, 2020

The exchange rate between the naira and the British pound sterling closed at ₦615/₤1 on Thursday, December 31st 2020. The rate had also closed at ₦615/₤1 on Wednesday, December 30th 2020.

• Naira: ₦615
• Pounds Sterling: ₤1
• Date: December 31st, 2020

Explore Economic Research Data From Nairametrics on Nairalytics

The exchange rate between the naira and the European euro closed at ₦565/€1 on Thursday December 31st 2020. The rate had also closed at ₦565/€1 on Wednesday, December 30th 2020.

• Naira: ₦565
• Euro: €1
• Date: December 31st, 2020

Activity: US Dollar closed at ₦460/US$1 in the parallel market

Forex turnover rose by 27.6%, as the Naira’s exchange rate at the NAFEX window depreciated against the dollar to close at N394/$1 during intra-day trading on Wednesday, December 30.

Also, the Naira remained stable against the dollar – closing at N470/$1 at the parallel market on Wednesday, December 30, 2020 – as Nigeria’s external reserve increases by $515 million in 12 days, rising from $34.841 billion as of 18 December 2020, to $35.356 billion as of 30 December 2020.

The Association of Bureau De Change Operators (ABCON) has appealed to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), to make BDCs pay out agents for diaspora remittances.

According to information from Abokifx – a prominent FX tracking website, at the black market where forex is traded unofficially, the Naira remained stable against the Dollar to close at N470/$1 on Wednesday – this same rate that it exchanged for on Tuesday, December 29.

NAFEX

The Naira depreciated against the dollar at the Investors and Exporters (I&E) window on Wednesday, closing at N394/$1.

• This represents a 50 kobo drop when compared to the N393.50/$1 that it exchanged for on Tuesday, December 29.
• The opening indicative rate was N392.95 to a dollar on Wednesday. This represents a 9 kobo drop when compared to the N392.86 that was recorded on Tuesday.
• The N402.10 to a dollar was the highest rate during intra-day trading before, it still closed at N394 to a dollar. It also sold for as low as N385/$1 during intra-day trading.
• Forex turnover: Forex turnover at the Investor and Exporters (I&E) window increased by 27.6% on Wednesday, December 30, 2020.
• According to the data tracked by Nairametrics from FMDQ, forex turnover rose from $129.19 million on Tuesday, December 29, 2020, to $164.81 million on Wednesday, December 30, 2020.
• The CBN is still struggling to clear the backlog of foreign exchange demand, especially by foreign investors wishing to repatriate their funds.
• The increase in dollar supply after last week’s drop reinforces the volatility of the foreign exchange market. The supply of dollars has been on a decline for months due to low oil prices and the absence of foreign capital inflow into the country.
• The average daily forex sale for last week was about $169.93 million, which represents a huge increase from the $34.5 million that was recorded the previous week.
• Total forex trading at the NAFEX window in the month of September was about $1.98 billion, compared to $843.97 million in August.
• The exchange rate is still being affected by low oil prices, dollar scarcity, a backlog of forex demand, and a shaky economy that has been hit by the coronavirus pandemic.
• Some members of MPC of the CBN had expressed serious concerns over the increasing demand pressure in the country’s foreign exchange market. This is an obligation of manufacturers to their foreign suppliers, which continues to increase in the face of dollar shortages.

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