Who Succeeds Ibrahim in Senate?

In line with the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria under Section 68(1)(d), Mr Ibrahim is expected to resign from the Senate before taking up the new job as as non-career ambassador.

However, his name on the list has triggered a fresh scramble among power blocs within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the opposition parties in the southern senatorial district of the state, as the senator’s imminent exit from the National Assembly for the diplomatic job opens a prized political window for “bye-election” to fill the seat.

The battle for the seat is no longer speculative; it is unfolding, accelerating, and rapidly shaping alliances. What began as a presidential nomination has now opened a full spectrum of local ambitions, federal calculations, and regional identity politics.

Senator Ibrahim, who currently chairs the Senate Committee on Inter-Parliamentary Affairs, is expected to vacate the Senate seat once his ambassadorial appointment is confirmed by his colleagues, who would apprehently use the traditional of “take a bow” as a ritual in the red chamber of the National Assembly.

With the senator’s imminent departure, the resulting by-election creates a rare mid-term opportunity for political actors seeking relevance, visibility, or bargaining power ahead of the next general elections.

Analysts have also predicted that the by-election, once announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), could become a major test of political strength within the fold of the ruling APC in Ondo state for the 2027 general elections.

As INEC’s announcement looms, the political machinery across Ondo South is roaring to life, setting the stage for an election that may define the state’s political rhythm ahead of 2027.

The Ondo South Senatorial District – spanning Okitipupa, Irele, Ese Odo, Odigbo, Ilaje, and Ile-Oluji/Oke-Igbo – had always remains one of the state’s most contested zones in history due to its significant voter populations and an oil-rich coastline whose development needs often become key political bargaining chips.

Elected on the platform of the APC in 2023, Senator Ibrahim, who hails from Igbotako in Okitipupa Local Government Area of the state as a first timer had also contested in the governorship seat on three consecutive times.

However, several aspirants – both former office holders and new entrants – have begun mobilising consultations across the district’s local government areas, signalling an intense battle for party control in the coming weeks.

The Nation learnt that from sources that the incumbent Senator has accepted his nomination as a non-career ambassador and would turn in his resignation letter in a few days.

While awaiting his official resignation, sources within the APC revealed that some leaders from Ondo South are already insisting that Senator Ibrahim’s replacement must come from within the existing party structure. Others argued that the contest should be thrown open to allow for broader participation.

The development has also rekindled intra-party rivalries within the APC, particularly between the camps loyal to Senator Ibrahim, those aligned with Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa, federal-level stakeholders and money bag politicians seeking to assert influence and support for President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in order to have a share of political positions ahead of the 2027 general election.

In the midst of the political bickering, the opposition parties, particularly the crisis-ridden Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), are reportedly weighing the option as they hope to capitalize on any cracks within the ruling APC for the Senate seat.

The PDP, which once dominated Ondo South, is now smelling opportunity as the timing presents an opening. The party is yet to regain its old statewide strength, but political pundits insist that a fractured APC could give the opposition a fighting chance – especially in Odigbo and Okitipupa, where it still retains a few pockets of influence.

As the district awaits formal timelines from INEC, political activities across the Ondo South are expected to intensify, with alignments, endorsements, and power negotiations likely to define the emergence as the unfolding race is already drawing battle lines among three dominant forces: the incumbent governor, the Abuja power blocs, and the Senator Ibrahim camp.

According to insiders, the supporters of Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa are already seeing the upcoming by-election as an opportunity to consolidate his influence within the district as he positions himself ahead of the 2027 cycle mostly in rallying support for President Tinubu’s re-lection bid.

The governor, who is also rumoured to still have an eye in the governorship seat after completing his current tenure, is expected to back a candidate – for the Ondo Senate Senatorial District – capable of strengthening his reach, especially in the oil-producing belt where his political roots lie.

Also, the Abuja power blocs are already tightening their belt with federal-level politicians, including a top minister from the state, political appointees, and APC national powerbrokers eyeing the contest for their loyalists to hold firm the zone.

For them, the Ondo South seat is not just a legislative position but a strategic foothold that could shape negotiations within the national APC structure for future elections in the state.

While the politicking is ongoing, Senator Ibrahim’s loyalists and supporters argued that the federal lawmaker or at least his political machinery should have considerable influence in choosing his replacement for the seat even as many of them insist that continuity is essential for ongoing constituency projects and political stability.

Observers predicted that if the three blocs are not aligned, their competing interests may result in a messy internal struggle that could affect the chances of the APC in the contest.

One of the political pundits in the state, Barrister Jenyo Orimisan, said that the upcoming bye-election would hot up with the capacity of various aspirants already showing interest in the seat.

Orimisan explained, “It’s going to be a battle of the Titans if the leadership of the APC didn’t quickly intervene now, and the contest is thrown open. Don’t forget that the Ondo South seat – covering Okitipupa, Ilaje, Irele, Ese Odo, Odigbo, and Ile-Oluji/Oke-Igbo has historically been highly competitive.

“The zone formally a strong hold of the opposition party has now been fragmented with ethnic interests, party loyalty, and the powerful voting blocs along the oil-rich coastal belt playing significant roles in determining outcomes and who becomes what.

“So, it would be tough, and everyone wants to show support for President Bola Tinubu for 2027 election. Nobody would also want to rule out the influence of the incumbent governor. With the calibre of cabinet members in the Aiyedatiwa’s government from Ondo South, would anyone want to say he won’t influence who takes over from Jimoh Ibrahim. The answer is capital No.”

Though, there are no major contenders who have publicly declared for the seat, but consultations and political permutations have begun with some of the aspirants making underground moves.

They include but no limited to Senator Nicholas Tofowomo, Barrister Morayo Lebi, former APC senatorial aspirant; Akinfolarin Mayowa, ex-House of Representatives member; and Mathew Oye Oyerinmade (MATO) and former Secretary to the State Government (SSG), Princess Oladunni Odu.

Others are: Former Speaker of the Ondo State House of Assembly, Jumoke Akindele, former Chief Press Secretary to the erstwhile Ondo governor, Eniola Akinsola, Boye Oyewumi, Diran Iyantan and Otunba Kayode Fakuyi among several others.

Senator Tofowomo

Tofowomo was the Senator representing Ondo South Senatorial District of Ondo State at the 9th National Assembly from 2019 to 2023. In a supplementary election, he was elected as senator, representing Ondo South after defeating the then Incumbent Senator Yele Omogunwa. He previously served as the commissioner for transport during the former administration of ex-governor Olusegun Mimiko.

Barr. Lebi

Lebi is a distinguished figure in the APC in Ondo state, who had established himself as a visionary leader with a career spanning over three decades, having introduced the party to the Southern part of the state. He contested for various offices, including the Ondo South Senatorial seat in 2015, although he lost the exercise. He also contested the 2024 governorship election exercise.

Lebi’s commitment to the party’s ideals is evident in his philanthropic efforts, including an N5 million contribution to support the rebuilding of the APC’s state secretariat, which was destroyed during the ENDSARS protest.

Hon. Akinfolarin

Akinfolarin was a former legislator and member of the Ondo State House of Assembly from 2003 to 2011, where he rose to the position of a deputy speaker and was also a member of the Nigeria Federal House of Representatives from 2015 to 2023. He won the House of Representatives’ seats to represent the interest of Ile-Oluji/Oke-Igbo/Odigbo constituency.

Akinfolarin further re-contested the seat and again won under the APC in 2019, becoming the only APC candidate that won the National Assembly election in Ondo South Senatorial District. Among other several positions, he held the position of the chairman House Committee on Federal Road Safety Corps (FRSC) of the 9th National Assembly.

Mathew Oye Oyerinmade

Oyerinmade, popularly known as MATO, is also a chieftain of the APC and renowned businessman. He contested the race for the Ondo South Senatorial Seat in 2023.

Born in Oke-Igbo, an ancient town in Ileoluji/Oke-Igbo Local Government Area of Ondo State, on May 27, 1967, Oyerinmade is also known as a

quiet philanthropist who has contributed consistently and immensely to poverty alleviation, empowerment, and community development in different parts of Ondo State.

Princess Catherine Oladunni Odu

Odu is an astute politician. She was born on December, 29 1952 in Okitipupa Local Government Area of Ondo State. She was appointed as Secretary to the State Government (SSG) by former governor late Rotimi Akeredolu. She was a Commissioner for Education in Ondo State (1995-1999), former Commissioner for Women Affairs,(January1999 to May 1999), Chairman, Ondo State Universal Basic Education Board (SUBEB) from September 2003 – February, 2009.

In 2013, Odu was appointed Director, Federal Medical Centre, Asaba; a position she held till 2015. She was also appointed the Federal Commissioner, Public Complaints Commission, Akure in 2015. She was again appointed the Chairman, Ondo State Universal Basic Education Board, by late Akeredolu in October 2017.

Rt (Hon) Jumoke Akindele

Akindele was the first female speaker of the Ondo State House of Assembly. She is also a lawyer. She was born in Okitipupa LGA. In April 2007, Hon Jumoke contested the seat of the constituency, Okitipupa constituency II, but lost to the opposition party. She re-contested on 11 April 2011 and was elect a member of the Ondo State House of Assembly, where she served as Chairman of House Committee on Education before she was elected Speaker of the Assembly.

On May 27, 2015, she was elected Speaker of the Assembly following the sudden demise of the former speaker Samuel Adesina. She relinquished the leadership position of the house in a resignation letter dated 20 March 2018.

Eniola Akinsola

Akinsola is the former Chief Press Secretary (CPS) to the former governor of Ondo State, Olusegun Mimiko. He’s a journalist, writer, columnist, and season politician who hails from Ondo. He’s also progressive and once contested the Senate seat for the Ondo South Senatorial District.

Boye Oyewumi

Oyewumi is a businessman and season politician. He is a former governorship aspirant under the platform of the ruling APC. He is from Oke-Igbo in Ile-Oluji. Oyewumi carries with him a legacy of discipline, public service, and community loyalty. He is also jostling for the race to take over from Jimoh Ibrahim.

Oyewumi’s political consciousness was awakened early. As a young activist in the 1990s, he joined the historic Hope ’93 presidential campaign of Chief M.K.O. Abiola, standing firmly on the side of democratic values. He later aligned with the NADECO movement, lending his voice to Nigeria’s struggle for the restoration of democracy.

Diran Iyantan

Iyantan is a former Federal Commissioner for National Population Commission (NPC), representing Ondo State and former governorship aspirant under the platform of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the November 16th, 2024 governorship election in Ondo State. He also served as a former Commissioner for Local Government and Chieftaincy Affairs in Ondo State.

The Ikale-born APC chieftain has been involved in progressive politics in the state since the inception of the Alliance for Democracy (AD), which later evolved into the APC. He’s also eyeing the Senate seat.

Ogbeni Fakuyi

Fakuyi, who hails from Ilutitun Ward 2 in Okitipupa local government area, is also a big player in the ruling APC. He was coordinator for Buhari Vanguard in Ondo State in 2014/2015. He coordinated a group of young professionals for the Tinubu/Shettima campaign in the 2023 general election.

He was a leading voice for the restoration of power supply to Ondo South Senatorial District when the distribution company disconnected the entire zone from the national grid. Mr Fakuyi holds Masters degree in Legislative Studies from the National Institute of Legislative and Democratic Studies (NILDS), Abuja. He is a legislative consultant to many federal lawmakers and legislative institutions with primary focus on public policy, public procurement, and constitutional matters.