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Premier League Tactical Preview: Arsenal can beat Liverpool

Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta

Alex Keble assesses the tactical battles in the weekend’s Premier League games, predicting Newcastle will earn a draw or more when they play Tottenham…

“Leicester could channel some of the low-block, counter-attacking football of their famous title-winning campaign.”

Ndidi & Tielemans can lead counter-attacking Leicester

Leicester City v Manchester City
Saturday, 17:30
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

With Manchester City considerably more defensively secure than they were in September, and with Brendan Rodgers happy to adapt to the opposition, there is little chance this will be another 5-2. However, Leicester City certainly can complete the double: as Pep Guardiola’s side dominate possession and territory, the Foxes can counter-attack to success.

The 3-4-1-2 formation is well-suited to nullifying Man City’s attack, in that Leicester will have plenty of bodies in the central column of the pitch where Guardiola funnels his attack. What’s more, Wilfried Ndidi and Youri Tielemans are likely to track Kevin de Bruyne and Phil Foden particularly well, before releasing Leicester’s tandem strikers on the counter.

Kelechi Iheanacho and Jamie Vardy are excelling in the new formation thanks to a more direct approach from Rodgers. Tielemans is bypassing the attacking midfield space altogether to feed the strikers as they make runs on the outside of the centre-backs, and given City’s high line this may be very effective. Leicester could channel some of the low-block, counter-attacking football of their famous title-winning campaign.

Odegaard & Smith Rowe to target Thiago

Arsenal v Liverpool
Saturday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports Main Event


Liverpool have all four of their forwards available for the first time since December, and after a two-week break from club football Jurgen Klopp’s side may feel psychologically refreshed. Put those things together and you get the return of a hard-pressing Liverpool attack, which should force more trademark defensive errors from Arsenal as they pass carefully out from the back.

But Arsenal are perhaps slight favourites, thanks to Jordan Henderson’s absence. The Liverpool midfield continues to look stilted, particularly in the right-centre space where Thiago is struggling to adapt to the speed and physicality of the division. Arsenal, who focus on quick tempo-changing passes through the lines, should be able to target Thiago by stationing Martin Odegaard and Emile Smith Rowe around him.


What’s more, Liverpool’s latest centre-back pairing of Ozan Kabak and Nat Phillips hasn’t really been tested despite recording back-to-back clean sheets. The pace of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang may cause them problems, forcing yet another rethink in the dugout.Jurgen Klopp, Liverpool manager.jpg

Steve Bruce’s diamond 4-4-2 is supposedly a more attacking system but they continue to look caught between styles, reflecting how the club is pulling in different directions as Bruce’s time at Newcastle United draws towards an end. However, while Brighton could elegantly pass through them, a team of Tottenham’s stature will allow Bruce to sit deeper and frustrate, possibly leading to more dropped points for Jose Mourinho.


Spurs lack detail in their attacking patterns, with the forwards expected to improvise – which is they are so good when given space to counter-attack and so flat when up against a deep-lying defence. Consequently a trip to St. James Park is exactly the kind of match they don’t like; Mourinho’s team will be laboured in possession, and with no spaces in behind for Heung-Min Son or Gareth Bale Newcastle can suck the life out of the contest.

When Tottenham are forced to dominate possession Harry Kane is the only creative presence, dropping deep to create chances out of nothing. Newcastle’s diamond midfield, then, is a good selection to crowd out the number ten zone in which Kane likes to play.

Expansive Potter means goals at both ends

Man Utd v Brighton
Sunday, 19:30
Live on BT Sport 1

Brighton are an incredibly open team. They spread high and wide in order to play their aesthetically-pleasing football, and it tends to lead to end-to-end games, just as it did in Man Utd’s 3-2 win in the reverse fixture earlier this season. Given that Ole Gunnar Solskjaer likes to play on the counter-attack, and that Brighton are naively keen on hogging possession no matter the quality of the opposition, there are bound to be goals on Sunday.


Adam Lallana is enjoying a new deeper midfield role in a 3-4-1-2, and while that will give Brighton more possession it makes them even flakier in central midfield; on the one hand Lallana can help get in-form Danny Welbeck into dangerous positions, but on the other Yves Bissouma has an awful lot of ground to cover with Bruno Fernandes and Paul Pogba lurking centrally.

Marcus Rashford is an injury doubt, but if he plays then he is the player to watch out for. Brighton have been deploying Pascal Gross at right wing-back, and with Ben White coming across to cover Potter’s team clearly lack pace on this flank. Rashford, on the break, can dominate.


Chelsea v West Brom: Blues to edge low scoring affair

Chelsea manager Thomas TuchelChelsea boss – Thomas Tuchel

High-flying Chelsea host Championship-bound West Brom in the first of the weekend’s Premier League games and Steve Rawlings fancies a low scoring affair…

Lennox Mall

“Tuchel for Lampard looks a wise move so far but Allardyce for Bilić looks a mistake – although he has at least stopped the side haemorrhaging goals.”

Chelsea v West Brom
Saturday April 3, 12:30
Live on BT Sport

0.5pt Chelsea to win 1-0


Chelsea unbeaten under the new boss

Frank Lampard’s first season in charge of Chelsea was viewed as a success. With an 18-month transfer ban still running, Champions League qualification via a fourth-placed finish was a reasonable result but after a fortune was spent in the summer, it was never going to take long for chairman Roman Abramovich’s patience to start to wane if they didn’t improve.

As much as £222m was spent in the summer as eight players, including Ben Chilwell, the experienced Thiago Silva and the German pair, Timo Werner and Kai Havertz, were brought in and everything in the garden was rosy after a decent start.


The Blues lost just one of their first 11 Premier League matches, at home to the champions Liverpool, and they sat third and just two points off the lead, but Lampard’s lads started to lose their way after that and when they lost five of their next eight, the writing was on the wall for the club legend.

Chelsea fell all the way down to ninth place after a 2-0 defeat at Leicester and they were matched at as high as 4.3 for a Top 4 Finish and Abramovich’s patience ran out. Lampard was sacked following their 3-1 win against Luton in the F.A Cup and almost immediately, the former Paris St-Germain boss Thomas Tuchel replaced him at the helm.

Tuchel’s rein began with a drab 0-0 draw at home to Wolves but the Blues followed that up with a comfortable 2-0 victory over Burnley and after 14 games in charge, Chelsea are yet to lose under the German. And they’ve only conceded in three of those 14 matches.

It’s an incredible turnaround given they hadn’t played three Premier League games in-a-row without conceding under Lampard this season.


Chelsea have progressed to the last eight in the Champions League, the last four in the F.A Cup and from that high of 4.3, they’re now long odds-on to finish the season inside the top-four in the Premier League. Abramovich’s decisive action has been vindicated so far but goal scoring is an issue.

There’s nearly always a slowdown on the goals scored front when a leaky team tightens up but in Tuchels 14 games in charge to date, Chelsea are yet to score more than twice. Confidence in front of goal is short and Tino Werner’s glaring miss against North Macedonia for Germany on Wednesday night won’t have given him much encouragement. It was 1-1 at the time and they went on to lose 2-1.

Weak West Brom look doomed

More than a month before Lampard left Stamford Bridge, Slaven Bilić was shown the door at the Hawthorns, despite a gutsy 1-1 draw away at Manchester City, but the new gaffer, Sam Allardyce, hasn’t been able to stop their demise.

0.5pt Chelsea to win

West Brom have won just two of 16 Premier League matches under Allardyce and with just nine games left to play, the Baggies are ten points away from safety and trading at just 1.02 for the drop.

Tuchel for Lampard looks a wise move so far but Allardyce for Bilić looks a mistake – although he has at least stopped the side haemorrhaging goals…

The Baggies lost to Blackpool on penalties in the F.A Cup after a 2-2 draw and they conceded 24 goals in Allardyce’s first eight Premier League games in charge, but they’ve let in just seven in his last eight with him at the helm. And they’ve conceded just two in their last five.

Allardyce Profile 1280 .jpg

A low-scoring home win looks on the cards

It’s very hard to see West Brom getting anything out of the game and a home win looks as likely as the short odds imply but given how short the Blues are (around 1.25), the value appears to sit in the side markets.

Given each of the last six Premier League games involving Chelsea have seen less than three goals scored, and that no more than two goals have been scored in each of West Brom’s last seven, odds-against about Under in the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market looks very fair.

The reverse fixture ended in a 3-3 draw back in September but the goals have dried up significantly in the Premier League since that heady first month of this bizarre fans-free season.

September saw an average of 3.68 goals per game but it didn’t last and month-by month the averages have come down. March’s average was just 2.24 goals per game – another reason to take the odds-against about Under 2.5 – but I’ve been a bit greedier and played the Correct Score market.

Given Chelsea have conceded just twice in ten Premier League games under Tuchel (and one of those was own goal), that they’re yet to score more than twice in a game under the German, and that West Brom have failed to find the net in five of their last seven games, backing 1-0 and 2-0 to Chelsea makes a lot of sense.

RB Leipzig v Bayern Munich: Lewy’s out, but there’ll still be goals

Bayern Munich forward Thomas MullerThomas Muller played a starring role against Leipzig last time out

The Bundesliga’s top two do battle this weekend, and Kevin Hatchard expects a thriller, despite the absence of arguably the world’s best centre-forward.

“Leipzig’s games against the big guns this season have generally featured plenty of goals, and even without Lewandowski, Bayern still pose a significant attacking threat.”

Back Over 3.5 Goals at 2.6

RB Leipzig v Bayern Munich
Saturday 03 April, 17:30
Live on BT Sport and Betfair Live Video

Back Over 3.5 Goals at 2.

Leipzig face acid test

Since they were formed in 2009, by controversially taking over the playing licence of fifth-tier club Markrandstädt, RB Leipzig have been building towards a moment like the one they’ll have on Saturday evening. They have reached the DFB Cup final and have made their way to a Champions League semi, but should they beat Bayern this weekend, they’ll be a step closer to the ultimate aim of becoming the champions of Germany.

Coach Julian Nagelsmann saw his first attempt at winning the league with Leipzig drown in draws last season, but Die Roten Bullen are more ruthless these days. They have won 17 of their 26 league matches, and are only a victory short of last season’s overall total. They have the best defensive record in the division, and they have only lost once all season at the Red Bulla Arena.

And yet one big doubt persists – can Leipzig win the big games against elite domestic opposition? Nagelsmann saw his side twice take the lead in Munich against Bayern earlier this season, but they couldn’t see it through and had to settle for a 3-3 draw. Against Borussia Dortmund this term they lost 3-1 after being blown away in the second half, they drew twice with Eintracht Frankfurt and lost at Borussia Mönchengladbach. If you look at their record against Bayern, they have only beaten them once since they came into the top flight.

Leipzig are missing a couple of key players. Left-back Angelino hasn’t played for over a month because of injury, while midfield fulcrum Kevin Kampl is suspended. Kampl’s a key player in transition, as he’s become very clever at stopping counterattacks with tactical fouls or clever interceptions. Centre-back Dayot Upamecano, who is joining Bayern in the summer, is an injury doubt.

Can Bayern win without Lewandowski?

Clubs are never happy about international breaks at the best of times, but Bayern have more reason than most to be annoyed. Robert Lewandowski, their spearhead and talisman, was injured playing for Poland against Andorra. He has slightly damaged knee ligaments, and could be out for four weeks. Not only will he miss this game, but he is also likely to miss both legs of the Champions League clash with PSG. His bid to break Gerd Müller’s single-season Bundesliga scoring record of 40 goals is now in jeopardy.

So how do Bayern replace him? There is a possibility that Thomas Müller could be pushed forward, but it’s perhaps more like that Müller will play in his usual role, with Serge Gnabry ahead of him, and a wing duo of Leroy Sane and Kingsley Coman. That’s still a lot of firepower, and there is a goalscoring threat from midfield, with Leon Goretzka alongside Joshua Kimmich.

There are however problems at the back. Jerome Boateng and Alphonso Davies are suspended, and Niklas Süle has only just returned from a thigh injury. Bayern are more vulnerable than usual in defence this term, having conceded 35 goals in their first 26 games, three goals more than they leaked in the whole of last season.

Back Thomas Müller in the Anytime Assist market at 3.4Bet now

Draw would suit champions

The last four Bundesliga meetings between these two have ended level, and I do think backing the draw is an attractive option here at 3.8. If the game is level late on, a point would suit Bayern as it would maintain their lead at the top, while Leipzig know that a defeat ends their title bid.

Goals likely despite Lewy absence

If you look at Leipzig’s games against the big hitters, they are often full of goals. They lost 5-0 at Manchester United but then beat them 3-2, they lost 3-1 to Dortmund, drew 3-3 at Bayern and edged out Gladbach 3-2.

Eleven of their 38 competitive games have featured four goals or more.

Six of Bayern’s last eight games in all competitions have featured at least four goals, and that bet has landed in 23 of their 40 matches, including all three of their prime-time meetings with Borussia Dortmund. Yes, Lewandowski is injured, but I still think Bayern are capable of scoring without him. You can back Over 3.5 Goals at 2.6.

Müller can make his mark

With Lewandowski out, there is even more pressure than usual on the irrepressible Thomas Müller to perform, and the numbers suggest that he will. Since the start of last season the Bavarian native has racked up an incredible 35 Bundesliga assists, including 14 in this campaign.

Müller scored twice in the reverse fixture, and you can back him to score at 2.88, but I’ll back him in the Anytime Assist market here at 3.4, which seems too big a price to ignore.

Bundesliga Betting: Wolves can maul Billy Goats

Wolfsburg striker Wout Weghorst

RB Leipzig’s clash with Bayern Munich is stealing the limelight in the Bundesliga this weekend, but Kevin Hatchard also has three other games to focus on.

“Wolfsburg are unbeaten at home, and they are in the top three on merit. Koln are too sloppy and inconsistent to stop such a well-oiled machine.”

Wolves to keep bounding forwards

Wolfsburg v Köln
Saturday 03 April, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

What was at one stage a fanciful dream for Wolfsburg and their fans morphed into a concrete possibility, and now a failure to finish in the top four and qualify for the Champions League would be seen as a devastating blow. Wolfsburg are in the Bundesliga’s top three on merit – they recovered from a rather dull and timid start, and have become one of the most efficient sides in Europe. Only RB Leipzig have a better defensive record in the German top flight, and dependable Dutchman Wout Weghorst has crashed in 17 league goals. Coach Oliver Glasner has developed a side that counter-presses as well as anyone in Germany, and he’s been backed up by some great work in the transfer market.

20-year-old Frenchman Maxence Lacroix, snapped up from Sochaux for just 4.5 million euros, has to be seen as one of the bargains of the season. He has struck up an excellent partnership with American John Brooks in central defence, while Maxi Arnold and Xaver Schlager are a fine blend of silk and steel in central midfield. Goalkeeper Koen Casteels is in my view the best Bundesliga stopper outside of Manuel Neuer.

Köln are currently the complete opposite. They have the second-worst defensive record in the division, and one of the lowest goal tallies. They were seconds away from a precious and deserved victory against Borussia Dortmund a fortnight ago, but they couldn’t hold on. A knee injury for star signing Sebastian Andersson has proved costly, while centre-back Sebastian Bornauw was laid low by a tumour on his spine.

Coach Markus Gisdol is clinging to his job, and his cordial relationship with sporting director Horst Heldt is being stretched to breaking point.

The Billy Goats have lost five of their last seven away games, and they have leaked 19 goals in that spell.

I’ll back Wolfsburg to win and Wout Weghorst to score at 2.26 on the Sportsbook by using the Same Game Multi. Weghorst was left out of the Dutch squad, he has scored in his last three games, and he found the net in the reverse fixture.

Mainz v Arminia Bielefeld
Saturday 03 March, 14:30
Live on Betfair Live Video

There have been various points in this season where Mainz looked dead and buried. The players started the season by completely falling out with coach Achim Beierlorzer, a man who has always looked out of his depth at this level. Beierlorzer’s replacement was an internal appointment, as long-time assistant Jan-Moritz Lichte was given a shot at the big time. Lichte looked like a rabbit in the headlights throughout, and managed just one league win.

Mainz’s third coach of the campaign has been a massive upgrade. Bo Svensson, who played for Mainz under Jürgen Klopp and Thomas Tuchel, has managed to unite a fractured squad and get them playing competitive football. They are far more aggressive in the tackle, more disciplined in defence, and they carry a goal threat. Svensson has delivered wins over RB Leipzig and Borussia Mönchengladbach, and overall the ZeroFivers have won five of their last nine matches.

Arminia Bielefeld’s coaching change hasn’t quite been as impressive or as effective. Frank Kramer has collected four points from four games since replacing Uwe Neuhaus, and his team has failed to score in three of those outings. I suspect their eye-catching win at Bayer Leverkusen owed more to Leverkusen’s failures than Arminia’s qualities.

Mainz have won three of the last four at home, and I think they are simply a better team than Bielefeld. I’ll back the hosts to win here at 1.92.

Berlin derby to catch the eye

Union Berlin v Hertha Berlin
Sunday 04 April, 17:00
Live on BT Sport and Betfair Live Video

The Berlin derby doesn’t have the cache of Roma v Lazio or Atletico v Real in Madrid, but the longer these two sides are in the top flight together, the more lines will be added to their story. At the start of this campaign, you’d have reasonably said that Union had more chance of tumbling out of the Bundesliga than Hertha, but it hasn’t worked out that way.

Union have been outstanding, and they have somehow maintained their momentum despite some damaging injury blows. Players like Max Kruse, Sheraldo Becker and Taiwo Awoniyi have all had significant spells on the sidelines, and yet Urs Fischer’s men have managed to find ways to win. Union are in with a genuine chance of qualifying for Europe, whether it’s for the Europa League or the new Conference League.

Hertha have spent a lot of investor Lars Windhorst’s money on player recruitment, with varying degrees of success. It still feels more like a group of expensive strangers rather than a team, although dyed-in-the-wool Hertha man Pal Dardai is trying to change that during his latest spell at the helm. Hertha picked up a vital 3-0 win over Bayer Leverkusen before the international break, and they are looking for a third straight win against their city rivals.

I fancy both teams to find the net here at 1.9. Hertha have been vulnerable defensively all season, and they have kept one clean sheet in their last ten matches. Union have conceded seven goals across their last two Berlin derbies, and they have seen both teams score in 17 of their 26 league games.

Copa del Rey and La Liga Tips: Bilbao will win Basque battle and lift cup


It’s last season’s Copa del Rey final this weekend – yes, you read that right – and Dan Fitch is tipping a Athletic Bilbao win, while also previewing two games from the La Liga title race.

“With 23 wins, over Barcelona have won the Copa del Rey more often and Bilbao have also lifted the Super Cup this season.

Saturday 3 April, 15:15
Live on LaLigaTV and Betfair Live Video

Real Madrid can put the pressure on their title rivals when they host Eibar on Saturday afternoon.

With the La Liga leaders Atletico Madrid not in action till Sunday, Real can move to within three points of their local rivals if they beat Eibar. They can also move a point ahead of second placed Barcelona, who do no play until Monday night.

If that is an advantage that Real Madrid hold going into this weekend’s fixtures, a disadvantage is they are still in the Champions League. With the home leg of their quarter-final against Liverpool taking place on Tuesday, before El Clasico next weekend, Zinedine Zidane may opt to rest players against Eibar.

With Eibar 18th in La Liga and without a win from their last 12 outings, it could be a gamble worth taking for Zidane. Eibar tend to keep it tight, with only two of those last 12 games seeing four goals or more, so back a Real Madrid win and under 3.5 goals at 2.12.

This is the final of the 2019-20 Copa del Rey. As the first ever Basque derby final, both clubs decided to postpone the match last season, in the hope that fans could attend.

Unfortunately the game will be played behind closed doors in Seville. It could be held off no longer, with this season’s final between Athletic Bilbao and Barcelona taking place in two weeks. It’s a bizarre situation for Bilbao to be in, with a league game against Sociedad to follow next week.

Real Sociedad are currently fifth in La Liga, but are not in great form, losing their last two games before the international break, including a 6-1 home thrashing by Barcelona. Bilbao have only lost twice in their last 17 games (W8 D7) and their cup pedigree cannot be disputed. With 23 wins, only Barcelona have won the Copa del Rey more often and Bilbao have also lifted the Super Cup this season.

Though the odds are very tight and Sociedad have the more talented squad, it’s perhaps Bilbao who should be slight favourites, with their style proving to be so successful in cup football over the past year. Back Bilbao to lift the cup at 2.12.

Sevilla 3.0 v Atletico Madrid 2.76; The Draw 3.2
Sunday 4 April, 20:00
Live on LaLigaTV and Betfair Live Video

Of the three teams fighting for the title, it’s the leaders Atletico Madrid that have the toughest fixture this weekend, as they travel to fourth placed Sevilla.

In the last round of fixtures, the top three all held their nerve and won, but Atletico came closest to dropping points. Facing Alaves at home, Atletico took the lead early in the second-half through Luis Suarez, but conceded an 84th minute penalty, which was saved by Jan Oblak to ensure a 1-0 victory.

It was a vital win at a time when Atletico have been drawing far too many games, with four of their last nine La Liga outings ending in a stalemate (W4 D1). The good news for Atletico is that Sevilla’s form has not been any better. Having previously put themselves in a position where they had an outside chance of winning the title, Sevilla have only won two of their last five games (D1 L2) and they are now eleven points behind Atletico, with ten games remaining.

With the odds very close and Atletico’s tendency to draw of late, backing this match to finish level at 3.2 could be where the value is.

PSG vs Lille: Tense thriller in store at top of Ligue 1 table

PSG and Brazil forward NeymarNeymar is set for his first appearance in nearly two months

Saturday afternoon’s encounter will go a long way to deciding the outcome of this season’s title race in France, writes James Eastham…

“Six of PSG’s eight games against sides currently in the top six and five of Lille’s seven matches against the same group of opponents this season have featured fewer than three goals.”

Best Bet: Back PSG vs Lille Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.95

PSG vs Lille
Sat, 16:00 BST
Live on BT Sport Extra 3 and Betfair Live Video

Back PSG vs Lille Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.95

Neymar ready to return for hosts

The top two in Ligue 1 go head-to-head this weekend in what looks like an early title decider.

PSG and Lille are tied together on 63 points at the top of the table as they prepare to face-off at Parc des Princes on Saturday afternoon.

PSG are 1.75 favourites, with Lille 5.6 and The Draw 4.0. At first glance, those odds look about right.

Yet there are several key factors to take into account ahead of the season’s most eagerly-awaited fixture in France’s top flight.

The first is team news. For PSG, Marco Verratti is ruled out by injury, and two or three other important players may be rested.

Paris face Bayern Munich in their Champions League quarter-final first leg in Germany next Wednesday. Manager Mauricio Pochettino will have that game in his thoughts when he names his team to take on Lille.

Neymar will be fit and is a contender to start. It would be his first appearance since February 10 and a huge boost for the hosts to have him back.

Fatigue a factor for Lille

Another factor is the recent international break and the negative impact that this might have on Lille rather than Paris.

For the visitors, Mike Maignan, Sven Botman, Jose Fonte (pictured below), Renato Sanches, Jonathan Ikone and Burak Yilmaz all represented their countries, while regular right-back Zeki Celik has been ruled out by a positive covid-19 test.

That means that seven of Lille’s expected Starting XI are either unavailable or have just returned to the club’s Luchin training base.

Paris have had fewer players away than usual and are more familiar with the process of welcoming back squad members for important domestic matches after international camps.

The imminent Champions League encounter against Bayern shouldn’t prove too much of an obstacle for PSG, either.

Paris’ record in league fixtures immediately before Champions League encounters this season is an excellent W6-D1-L1.

Of greater concern to PSG, though, will be their poor Ligue 1 record vs fellow top-four sides this season.

In such matches – i.e. fixtures against Lille, Lyon and Monaco – PSG’s record is a dismal W1-D1-L3, including a 0-0 draw when these sides met in Lille on December 20

PSG’s problems against their direct rivals are well-documented although it’s worth noting that this trend appears to have run its course.

In their two most recent encounters against top-four rivals PSG blew away an admittedly under-strength Lille when the sides met in the Coupe de France on March 17 (3-0 win), and then produced arguably their best league display of the season to run out 4-2 winners at Lyon in their final outing before the international break on March 21.


Low goals the smart selection

PSG’s recent improvement will make Lille wary and the Christophe Galtier’s players would undoubtedly take a draw. The visitors have great faith in their defensive ability and a cautious approach is likely.

Goalkeeper Maignan – a PSG academy graduate – has been arguably Ligue 1’s best between the posts this season and centre-backs Fonte and Botman have been sensational.

Lille’s formidable away record is another reason the visitors will head to the French capital with quiet confidence.

Lille are W4-D1-L0 from their last five away trips and have the division’s best away record over the course of the season (W9-D4-L1).

Taking all factors into account, our top selection on the game is to back Under 2.5 Goals.

Thirty of 60 games (50%) involving these two sides this season have had Under 2.5 Goals. The same applies to 15 of their 29 (52%) combined home (PSG) and away (Lille) fixtures.

These stats suggest odds of around evens are correct. Clashes among the elite paint a different picture, however.

Three of PSG’s five games vs top-four rivals have had Under 2.5 Goals, and the same applies to six of their eight fixtures vs current top-six sides.

Lille’s games against the best have been similarly low-scoring: five of their seven fixtures vs current top-six sides have featured Under 2.5 Goals.

Meanwhile a trading recommendation during the game would be to back late goals.

Fifty-one of 88 goals (58%) in league games involving PSG this season have been scored after half-time, with 21 (24%) of those goals coming in the final 15 minutes of matches.

As a variation on the theme, consider laying early goals, because there have been so few in games involving these two sides this season.

Just nine of 88 goals in PSG’s matches and only six of 69 goals in Lille’s league games (10% of the combined total) have been scored in the opening 15 minutes of matches.

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