South West and The Weight of “Alajobi” Votes in 2027. By Lanre Adewole

In 2023, of the 8,794,726 million votes that sent Mr. Bola Tinubu to Aso Rock presidential villa, only 2,279,407 million of them, representing just a little above 25% of the total, came from his South West stock.

So last week, I had lengthy conversations with two Yoruba political lieutenants of Mr. President. One has always had reservations about his politics but still supported him firmly to win in 2023. The other, until the shocking discovery during the discussion, was smitten by the City Boy political charm. He adored, idolised and even lionised what he considered as unmatched political and administrative prowess of the President. Until last week, with him, the President could do no wrong.

But both are now very disappointed and embittered with the President, with the one who used to cannonise him, being more truculent in his condemnation, especially of the seeming amoral reelection expansionist agenda of the President which is emptying all manner of opposition elements into the ruling party.

The APC leader couldn’t understand his Leader (the President) working with all sorts in the opposition arena, especially governors, despite their (he and Tinubu’s) much-vaunted “progressive” resume and bonafides. He signaled his crushed enthusiasm in having to work with “strange bedfellows” the President had ported into the ruling party and the “progressive” fold, reminisced about the puritan progressivism of the Awo era and to a large extent the succeeding Ige’s, before concluding that the “rainbow” coalition now driving the re-election agenda of Mr. President, has shamed every modicum of elan, morality, integrity, honesty, decency and dignity in public service that defined the founding fathers of progressive politics. He equally accepted that a good portion of the still-breathing old brigade had also turned, disclosing that he was so pained recently he had to accost a renegade Awoist, in the departure lounge of life, to demand from him what he would tell his leaders like Awo, Ajasin, Ige et al, when he sees them in afterlife. Inside of me, I was like, he could bone (slang for ignore) them.

Even my uncharacteristic cheer of an aspect of the local economy; the raw food sector, seen as gradually clawing out of the pit, would not lift his glum. In time past, he would have been the one calling my attention. So much for life curves.

Expectedly, our dissection shifted to the emerging electoral map and the president’s pathway to re-election; which had got the other less-disappointed (because he had predicted the fumbling) leader worried, due to its contours in our separate conversation.

Despite their misgivings, both, particularly the more-souring lieutenant projected that the presidential election would still be patterned after the “Omo eni o se idi bebere” (Yoruba wisecrack for identity politics) mentality for the expected front runners in the poll, which would translate to each leading candidate sweeping his geo-backyard. In essence, President Tinubu is projected to win the South West by a large margin, Peter Obi, sweeping his South East (despite almost all the zone’s governors now in APC) and Atiku Abubakar, doing very well in the North, especially North East and North West (again, despite most of the governors over there in APC). The North Central is inked as the battleground, where recent strategic federal appointments are expected to carry the incumbent to the finishing line.

The more-bitter party chieftain, ironically, was more certain that the Obi phenom of 2023 which gave him Lagos, is an affliction that would not rise again in 2027. Despite his misgivings with his “leader”, the President, he is still holding that only a Yoruba “bastard” will dump Tinubu for Obi in Lagos and elsewhere in the South West in the next year election. We dissected Atiku’s chances in the South West too and he concluded there is no pathway to substantial ballot for him too in Yoruba land when the son of the soil who is also the incumbent, will be running. The less-enthusiastic leader too, held that Asiwaju would win the South West, but would not insert “very well” into his own permutation because “the Yoruba can be pragmatic”. He alluded to a lot of discontent among rank and file of the ruling party over the total hijack of state party structures by governors, especially in the course of the just-done party congresses, noting that no individual or group was allowed nationwide to purchase forms to contest for party leadership positions from ward to state level. According to him, each governor belonging to the party, was sold all the forms for party positions by the national headquarters of the ruling party, which couldn’t have been, without the express blessing of the president; as the national leader of the party. The governors, according to findings, distributed the forms to their chosen candidates for party positions, ending up with consensus arrangement everywhere, save for a state like Ondo which governor appears to be at odds with Abuja. This party leader thinks most of the scorned aspirants and their grieving supporters will likely stay back in the party and hurt its candidates, including the president in the general election.

Ordinarily the unified stance of the duo on how the South West will vote next year, should be the reality of the current political season, which has been mainly what the Yoruba will describe as everybody carrying his/her own mother’s breast, without much assistance from the next-door neighbour. In reality, identity politics has largely defined the pre and post-independence politicking, with leading candidates sweeping their backyards, until now-late M.K.O Abiola showed up like an armada and swept his main opponent, equally now-late Bashir Tofa, off his North backyard, including his Kano base. But thanks to Babangida and his cohort, that popular mandate only received posthumous validation.

Then came 1999 and the Yoruba race rejected its son, Okikiola Obasanjo who was evidently going to be president, having been massively backed by the North. But the Oduduwa race didn’t still tie the jigida on the waist of omolomo (someone outside of the zone). It heavily backed another of its own, considered the pick of the race. It was a case of trying to checkmate external imposition.

Four years later, in 2003, the rejected son who became president, eventually found accommodation with his own, sweeping the South West on his way to massive re-election victory. This fits into the projection of the two disappointed political lieutenants of the president that his Yoruba base would be more welcoming next year than four years ago. Precedents support their stance.

But can one say same of the current political and economic realities, among other factors that determine mass support or bloc voting?

President’s supporters are always wont to point to the Obi windfall of 2023 in the South East, boasting a reenactment in the South West this election cycle. One of the disappointed associates of the president alluded to same. He promised that despite the anger of many against the President back home especially in Lagos, Obi would struggle to reach a 10 percent total vote milestone this time, let alone repeat the feat of electorally humbling Tinubu in his backyard. Something sounded sinister in the half-threat, half-mockery promise.

From my reading, ceteris paribus, the President will still win the vast majority of South West votes despite his performance that has been panned across the geo-zone. In winning the presidency, he took four of the six states, losing Lagos to Obi’s Labour and Osun to Atiku’s PDP. It would have been 3-for-3 split with the opposition, but for Oyo’s Seyi Makinde who leaned into the alajobi (tribal) sentiment to hand Oyo, a PDP state to the then APC flagbearer. He saved Tinubu greater embarrassment after the Lagos humiliation. Now Makinde says he’s charting a different course next year.

Coming a close second behind Tinubu’s losing numbers in Lagos, Makinde’s 449,884 effort against his party’s flagbearer, doubled, even in excess, Ekiti’s 201,494 in the making of the Tinubu presidency. The Oyo numbers also topped 100,000 in extra, compared to Ogun, Osun and even Ondo. Now that the man who led that effort is looking elsewhere, time will tell if the President’s men in the state where the governor is the most dominant political figure, despite recent jolts, can cover for his absence in their corner.

The pragmatic one in my conversations is of the opinion that the Muslim/Muslim ticket downside which he believed hurt Tinubu in mostly Christian South West last time, would not be a factor in 2027 as the Nigerian leader had presumably demonstrated he belongs to everyone and belongs to no one. The zone is still retaining its six Christian governors just like in 2023 and the President’s wife has become a very visible foot soldier in propagating her husband’s all-faith inclusivity. Vice-President Kashim Shettima whose inclusion in the 2023 winning ticket worried Christians more, has also been relatively quiet in promoting the reelection agenda. The prognosis of the religion factor in the South West, this time, would appear to favour Mr. President.