PBAT’s Leadership Failures, By Olutayo Ogundipe

I’m a PBAT supporter. Proudly so.

Yet, I believe we must continue to call out his failings as a matter of civic duty and partisan interest. Those of us that believe he’s still the best from the lot should challenge him to do better and hold him accountable. Otherwise, he would face full reckoning at the ballot box in a matter of months. By that time, it will be too late.

I supported PBAT in 2023 because I believed he stood out as the candidate with full appreciation of the magnitude of the challenges facing the country and with the political will and capacity to make difficult, unpopular but necessary decisions to course-correct and avoid what looked like an impending economic and political doom.

All politicians want to be loved. That’s a key asset in their business. It’s always easier to kick the can down the road than take the bull by the horn. I listened intently to Obi and Atiku on issues that I believed mattered most. I wasn’t impressed. Their actions and statements over the last 3 years confirmed my suspicion that they couldn’t have pulled off what was necessary to arresest the drift and steady the ship especially on oil subsidy removal and unification of forex markets.

However, despite making the right policy choices on some of the thorniest macro issues facing the country and pushing it through with little or no civil resistance, PBAT has dropped the ball in some critical areas that may come back to hunt him.

For the records, I might be the only one left that’s not impressed with having 31 governors supporting his reelection. Obviously, having them on his side is better than having them work against him. I just don’t believe these governors have the political weight to deliver their states. Obi won 11 states and Abuja in 2023 with only one Labor Party governor. Meanwhile, Buhari and the state governor couldn’t deliver Katsina. In Buhari’s adopted home state of Kaduna, despite El Rufai’s noise, Atiku still won there. These governors aren’t as big a political prize as most people think. I hope I’m wrong but time will tell.

On Tinubu’s failings, there are 3 areas he needs to tackle as a matter of utmost urgency for the sake of the country and his own political fortune:

1) Social welfare for the masses: Market-based reforms are often described as “trickle-down economics” for a reason. They tend to manifest in macro indicators improvements first. GDP growth rate, fx stability, declining inflation, fiscally sound governments and so on. The immediate beneficiaries are those in power with more resources to work with and a very, very small share of the population with resources to capitalize on new opportunities in stock markets, bond markets, private investments and so on. Thes very few Nigerians have seen exponential growth in their wealth as the economy improves. This is not a Nigerian thing. It’s the nature of reforms.

Sadly, the pains from the reforms tend to be broadly distributed and more often than not land disproportionately on the poor and the most vulnerable people in the society. High food costs, high transportation costs, job insecurities, high rents, higher charges for the little social services like public health and public education. The poor get squeezed.

Nigerians are going through these as a result of PBAT’s reforms. That’s to be expected. The real disappointment is the failure of government to prioritize palliatives and mitigating initiatives to cushion the sugfegrings of the masses. The failure to treat these programs with the same urgency as the policies themselves.

I don’t understand how we removed subsidy without making serious, deliberate and nationwide plans for subsidized mass transportation systems. Intra and inter city train services would take time to develop but in this day and age, with the right policies in place, there is enough private capital to partner with government to make things happen. Meanwhile, subsidized public buses should be all over Nigeria by now. This is totally doable if the President is committed. I just don’t get the lack of concern for the masses in this regard.

Income hasn’t kept up with inflation. Food is cheaper today than a year ago but still more expensive than it was before Tinubu took office. Public transportation is killing folks. Rent is out of hands. People are suffering. The President doesn’t seem to fully appreciate how bad things are. That could be costly.

The government can and should do more. It’s the right thing to do and it’s also smart politics.

2) Security and public engagement: Our security challenges are multifaceted with no quick fixes. We will win but it’s going to be a long, asymmetrical, iterative warfare. Our gallant men and women in the armed forces are giving their best. Yet, the evil anarchists won’t give up easily. The Islamic extremists are here to stay for a long time. The local ones like Boko Haram can be relatively tamed. The killer criminal Herdsmen can be neutralized with the right political will.

However, regional threats from ISWA and other criminals terrorizing the Sahel and Chad regions would be a long hard one to combat. These guys got pushed out of the Middle East and chose this region for a reason. We have lots of weak states with no capacity to police their borders. Niger’s land area is much larger than ours and their annual budget is a fraction of ours. Burkina Faso, by some accounts, has almost 70% of the land area under Islamic terrorists and they’re grabbing more. Mali, next door, is almost falling to these anarchists with some of them allegedly on the outskirts of the country’s capital. Same challenges with Chad and other countries.

With the best military and intelligence that money could guys, the United States eventually left Afghanistan for the Taliban after almost 20 years of lost livea and wasted treasures. Iraq is yet to recover. Libya is a mess. Yemen is now under the Houthis. We have a serious global problem in our door steps.

PBAT is wisely building a coalition that’s needed for the long fight. USA, France, UK, Turkey and others are supporting us in many ways to face the challenges. The brilliant way in which PBAT turned a potential hostile relations with Trump into a collaboration will remain one of the most underappreciated successes of his time in power.

Yet, our best efforts won’t translate to an easy or quick win. These terrorists will succeed in inflicting damages periodically. They will milk each successful attack for maximum PR benefits. Fear and division are their best weapons.

This is where the President’s refusal to engage the public is so disappointing. It’s baffling and frankly annoying. He has not addressed the country since Trump threatened to violate our territory. He’s not talked to us about US operations on our soil which is actually a good thing.

The worst part is the lack of empathy. I’ve not seen this President visit an IDP camp. Nigerians are refugees in their own country due to insecurity and our President isn’t talking about it. I’ve not seen him visit victims in the hospital. Till today, he’s not visited Kwara despite the awful attacks. He finally showed up in Plateau with an airport stop where victims had to be brought to hear him speak. Very arrogant. Very annoying. Highly disrespectful. The excuse of a tight schedule is insulting. Dedicating a full day to such a visit is the least he could do. He just arrived in Ogun state to commission projects. If he has time for such, he should have time for his citizens that are victims of terrorist attacks.

3) Accountability: APC controls the national assembly and 31 states. I’ve not seen a Senate hearing where security chiefs are held to account. One would expect such hearings to take place publicly at least once a quarter. We are yet to see state policing passed into law. The President could get NASS leadership to prioritize this.

Retired General Musa was appointed as Defense Minister with huge public support. The man is yet to give full accounting of the state of security in the country. Since the Iran war started, Secretary Hegseth and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs have been holding weekly press updates where they take questions from journalists.

Our own leaders don’t think we are worthy of their attention. No press events. You would think we will be getting at least similar monthly briefings from the Defense Ministed and Chief of Defenae Staff on the state of security. Nothing. Nada. Maybe it’s for the best anyway considering the CDS’s recent ridiculous statement aboit terrorists as our brothers. Nonsense!

PBAT himself hasn’t done a full press interview in at least 18 months. That’s weird. We didn’t elect a King to rule us. We elected leaders to lead us. You can’t be a leader if we don’t follow. We can’t follow if we don’t know where you’re taking us.

Net-net, leadership is hard. On balance, I still give PBAT a pass grade. I know he’s working hard. I believe he’s doing his best to do right by the country.

My criticisms rest on these convictions. He’s done the heavy lifting well. He has to do more in other areas to cement the gains and also improve his own political fortunes.

As Bill Clinton once said, every election is a choice. When it comes to Nigeria, the choice is clear in my opinion. Of course, we are not choosing between sinners and saints. Our choice is not between black and white. We are choosing between shades of gray.

In that continuum, for all his imperfections, I will take PBAT over clowns that can’t even manage internal party affairs. They are running from one party to another looking for the easiest path to power. They lack the conviction and sacrificial spirit needed to build a strong, broad political coalition. The worst and most offensive part is their inability to take responsibility for their poor choices. They love to play the victim. They feel entitled to have the rules bent for them. They are aggrieved that the ruling party won’t go out of its way to help them. They blame everyone and every institution for their own incompetence.

They can’t manage simple parts affairs but they want to be trusted with complex affairs of state. They’ve not earned our trust in my opinion.

However, the next election will be a referendum on PBATand his stewardship. I believe the opposition, as pathetic as it is today, can benefit from an angry electorate. Nigerians will choose an opposition with uncertain prospect over an incumbent they perceive as certainly insensitive to their struggles.

Make no mistakes about this. PBAT could lose next year. ADC could win. There is work to do to avoid this outcome. Resting on 31 governors is cold comfort. Only PBAT could renew people’s hope. It can definitely be done but time is running out.