Opposition Divided against Itself, By Simbo Olorunfemi

It has become the custom that in the aftermath of our elections – once winners have emerged, those on the other side will simply switch to a higher gear, moving from pre-election perturbation to post-election agitation.

Of course, there are instances where there are valid reasons to take to that route, but a dispassionate analysis will lead one to the conclusion that such instances ought not to be as routine as we now have it. But that is not even the focus here.

Rather, this is me asking if beyond blaming INEC, IReV, BVAS and other acronyms, if opposition parties ever engage in any form of introspection to interrogate other factors apart from the highlighted that might be responsible for unfavourable outcomes.

One such factor one would expect for any genuine interrogation to consider is what appears to be unexplainable difficulty for opposition elements to come together, die to self and concentrate forces, faced with an incumbent who does appear vulnerable in spite of the ‘advantages’ that come with incumbency.

Take the Presidential election, few will argue that APC, the party in power was at its most vulnerable point approaching this election for reasons beyond our focus at the moment. All that was needed was an opposition that was not only smart with its choice of candidate and able to keep its house as one.

Opposition decided on the opposite route. PDP chose to breach its own power-rotation code, couldn’t find accommodation for a Peter Obi who already ‘bought’ nomination form for N40 million, forcing him to leave the party days before the primary. Perhaps a word of assurance from his elder Brother, Atiku, might have forced a change of mind. Then the fallout from the primary which gave birth to the G-5. Rather than pull together like APC did in 2014, PDP broke into 3, with Labour party and NNPP pulling from the sides, while the G-5 stayed back to do damage from within. It was most amusing seeing PDP and Labour holding a joint press conference after the election. Medicine after death.

In Lagos, the situation was almost the same. Gbadebo had aspired for the PDP ticket and only left the party when he was denied the chance to be Jandor’s running mate. Whereas Jandor had been a rallying point for the different tendencies within a party that had the tradition of always approaching election divided, history will again repeat as the Labour surge divided the party and eroded the support it traditionally enjoyed. It lost its base to the Labour party. But Labour itself was a divided house, thinly held together by the Obi glue. But more importantly, it was a divided opposition that went into the Governorship election in Lagos. For this and other reasons, the outcome eventually became predictable.

The position of the incumbent in Ogun was vulnerable going into the election. But PDP couldn’t even put its house in order. Between Adebutu and Sowunmi, it was a battle to know who was really the party Candidate for the election. It was alleged that a former Governor was behind the ADC Candidate to spite the incumbent running on the platform of APC. That move seemed to have benefited the incumbent more, winning with only a margin of 13,915 votes over the PDP, while ADC had 94, 754 in its net. A united front between ADC and PDP would have had a better chance to take the APC out.

The case in Rivers is pathetic. For years now, APC has been torn into pieces. Done with the APC even though allegedly working for the APC Presidential candidate, Magnus Abe ran on the platform of the SDP, further fragmenting an already divided opposition. Who duels Wike with a divided house, even if the candidate of his choice is virtually unknown?

Even as many of us earnestly pray for a Binani victory in Adamawa, it must be remembered that the APC took forever to put its house in order over her candidacy. That in spite of the fact that this was a race against an incumbent in a state which has been keenly contested between the two major parties in the past elections, with the added factor that the PDP Presidential candidate hails from the state.

So, in all, it is easy for the opposition to claim it has been robbed of victory. Who knows? But a bit of introspection might lead it in the direction of the mirror. Perhaps it just might get to see the point here that opposition divided against itself will always struggle to win.