Of  ADC’s Checkers and APC’s Chess, By Magnus Onyibe

“One must be a fox to recognize traps, and a lion to frighten off wolves. Those who simply act like lions are stupid.”

This quote, attributed to Niccolò Machiavelli—the Italian philosopher and author of The Prince, one of the most influential treatises on political leadership—aptly captures the current dynamics of Nigeria’s political landscape as the race toward the 2027 general elections intensifies.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who is seeking re-election in 2027, appears to be playing the role of the fox—working strategically behind the scenes to position the All Progressives Congress (APC) for continued dominance. In contrast, those behind the newly energized political platform, the African Democratic Congress (ADC), have been loudly positioning themselves as the lions—determined to remove Tinubu from office through the ballot box in 2027. In the context of Machiavelli’s analogy, that makes them the lion, while Tinubu remains the calculating fox.

And here’s why.

About four weeks ago, at the Yar’adua Center in Abuja, the ADC announced its emergence as a reinvigorated opposition force. What occurred was, in business parlance—though not officially labeled as such—an acquisition rather than a merger, which was the model used in the formation of the APC. In ADC’s case, a significant number of political heavyweights from various opposition parties chose to join the existing ADC structure, which has been around since 2006 when it was  founded  rather than dissolve their parties entirely into a new platform.

This is a different approach from February 2013, when three major parties—ACN, CPC, and ANPP—along with a splinter faction of the then-ruling PDP (nPDP), merged to form the APC. The current ADC reformation, however, is being powered by politicians who have been displaced from their former comfort zones (some of whom are founders of the very parties they have now abandoned). These individuals have now found a new home in ADC and hope to stage a political comeback through it.

Clearly, just as APC was the vehicle that led it to victory in 2015, the new-look ADC aspires to replicate that feat in 2027. However, life is dynamic, and past strategies may no longer be sufficient for tackling present-day challenges. Attempting to replicate APC’s 2015 strategy may be akin to going into modern warfare with bayonets and arrows while the adversary is armed with drones and stealth bombers.

Unless the coalition forming around ADC has more advanced and undisclosed strategies, it appears likely that they will make a splash—but not a dent—against a ruling party that has planted seeds of policy and infrastructure that are beginning to bear visible fruit.

One key distinction between the APC’s emergence ahead of the 2015 elections and ADC’s current positioning for 2027 lies in the method of formation. While APC was created through a formal merger, ADC’s new posture stems from what amounts to a political acquisition of an existing party—one that was already a going concern.

Initially, the new opposition coalition had contemplated launching a fresh platform—tentatively named the African Democratic Alliance (ADA). But in a move that surprised many Nigerians, they opted instead to persuade ADC’s leadership to hand over the reins of the party to them.

Given the unfolding crisis within the Social Democratic Party (SDP)—which recently expelled former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai and imposed a 30-year ban just months after he publicly joined the party—one is left to wonder whether the political heavyweights who have now seized the ADC platform might soon face a similar fate. It was presidential spokesman Bayo Onanuga who irreverently dubbed these politicians “Internally Displaced Politicians” (IDPs), a name that is already sticking.

It’s also worth noting that ADC, in its previous form, was not a major political force in terms of voter strength. For instance, its 2023 presidential candidate, Dumebi Kachikwu, secured only 81,919 votes—compared to Bola Tinubu’s 8,794,726 votes, Atiku Abubakar’s 6,984,520, and Peter Obi’s 6,101,533.

In summary, while ADC may have entered the ring with loud declarations and revived energy, it remains to be seen whether it is playing a strategic game of chess—or merely checkers against a grandmaster.

Also, the ADC has only two (2) members elected into the National Assembly (NASS), and no elected officials even at the ward level.

So, why did the aggrieved politicians seeking a new political platform choose to berth in the ADC, rather than register and organically grow the now-rested African Democratic Alliance (ADA), which they had once romanticized and fantasized about? I guess the answer remains  in the belly of time.

With the ADC now effectively acquired by these new powerbrokers, a new leadership structure has been constituted on an interim basis—akin to forming a management team and board of directors in the private sector. At the helm is Senator David Mark, a former Senate President, as Chairman, with former Osun State Governor Rauf Aregbesola serving as Secretary.

Clearly, this restructuring is a strategic move designed to mount a serious challenge in the 2027 general elections and ultimately unseat the incumbent president, Bola Tinubu.

But the target is not standing idle.

In preparation for the political battle ahead—particularly against opposition elements both within and outside the APC—the ruling party has moved decisively. It swiftly removed its former chairman, Dr. Umar Ganduje, and replaced him with Prof. Nentawe Yilwatda, the current Minister of Humanitarian Affairs and Poverty Alleviation. His appointment was resoundingly accepted, having been selected by the top leadership of the party without the kind of rancor that often accompanies such transitions in other parties.

When one contrasts the seamless change in APC’s leadership with the chaos that surrounded the PDP’s multiple failed attempts to remove its former chairman, Iyorchia Ayu, back in 2022/23, the leadership acumen of APC’s political helmsman, President Bola Tinubu, stands out in stark relief.

By and large, the PDP—and to a significant extent, the Labour Party (LP)—have been weakened by internal leadership failures. This erosion has diminished both parties and their leadership, while the APC’s relative stability has strengthened its institutional structure and further elevated the organizational prowess of its leadership. As the character Eneke the bird famously declared in a popular Igbo folklore: “Since men have learnt to shoot without missing, I have learnt to fly without perching.”

Apparently, the APC has learned valuable lessons from its early criticisms—particularly the view that it was a party formed by “strange bedfellows.” Rather than ignore or marginalize dissenting voices, the party now appears to prioritize negotiation and inclusion. This approach has significantly reduced the kind of destructive internal conflicts that have plagued opposition parties.

Arising from the above, there is little doubt that APC has become adept at conflict avoidance. The peaceful exit of its former chairman, Ganduje, and the strategic installation of a much younger and capable candidate from Nigeria’s Middle Belt region—as a gesture to satisfy a critical voting bloc—is a testament to that maturity. Conversely, the PDP and LP’s lack of visionary leadership has left both parties in turmoil, bleeding members like a person suffering a ruptured artery.

Take the PDP, for instance. What if Iyorchia Ayu had been persuaded to step down as chairman to address the valid concerns of party members who believed that both the chairmanship and presidential ticket should not be zoned to the North?

Instead, the party plunged into the 2023 general election as a divided house, paying a catastrophic political price. That election disaster has since been the party’s undoing, throwing it into a spiral of crises and reducing it to a pale shadow of its former self.

In sharp contrast, the APC has demonstrated resilience and staying power. It is, without doubt, a party poised to retain power in the 2027 elections—unless unforeseen developments dramatically change the current trajectory.

Ironically, it is the dysfunction of the PDP and the internal divisions within the LP—whose presidential candidates in the 2023 election, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, were first and second runners-up to Bola Tinubu—that have turned their key figures into what presidential spokesman Bayo Onanuga irreverently described as Internally Displaced Politicians (IDPs). These political refugees have now anchored themselves in the ADC, which may appear to be a political oasis but is, in reality, a holding bay for dislocated political actors.

Even more ironic is the fact that some of the very leaders who once founded and built these faltering political parties are now the ones abandoning ship. While a few have opted to sail or sink politically with the PDP, others—disillusioned and stripped of influence—have fled the parties they once helped create. Now adrift, they resemble wandering spirits seeking shelter, having destroyed the homes they once proudly called their own.

ADC, PDP, and the Art of Political Chess: Tinubu’s Strategic Advantage

It is significant to note that the glaring leadership failures in Nigeria’s opposition parties have inadvertently helped to underscore the value of internal discipline within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), especially under the leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Since the party’s founding in February 2013, President Tinubu has made discipline and party cohesion the cornerstone of APC’s political architecture—ensuring it remains intact and indestructible for over a decade.

In my view, this is precisely why the APC continues to grow stronger, while its main rivals—the PDP and LP—have experienced steady decline.

Rather than celebrate Tinubu for his ability to keep the APC unified and speaking with one voice (a rare and critical leadership quality in Nigerian politics), his critics have chosen instead to mock this strength. They coined the phrase “Baba so pe”—loosely translated as “Daddy has directed”—to parody the influence Tinubu holds within his party. However, what they deride as authoritarianism is in fact a demonstration of political ingenuity and influence. That Tinubu commands such respect and loyalty from his party members is a testament to his strategic brilliance.

It is precisely this leadership quality that has earned him the reputation—among both admirers and detractors—as one of the most formidable political strategists in Nigeria’s modern history.

In my assessment, this strategic capacity is among the core reasons APC has remained undefeated in national elections and appears increasingly invincible—even in the face of emerging threats such as the newly restructured African Democratic Congress (ADC), which is, by all indications, merely old wine in a new bottle.

By every standard of political measurement, the APC currently stands as the most stable and formidable of Nigeria’s four main political parties—PDP, LP, NNPP, and now ADC. This strength is not solely a function of incumbency but is rooted in its ability to manage internal affairs with coherence and discipline—something its rivals have repeatedly failed to achieve.

The glue holding the APC together is, undeniably, President Tinubu himself. His deft political maneuvering—evident in the peaceful and strategic replacement of the party’s national chairman—should be studied in political science classrooms. Contrary to widespread expectations that the APC would implode following its formation by ideologically divergent parties in 2013, it has not only survived but flourished.

Meanwhile, unlike the PDP—whose decline began with the death of President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua in 2010 and intensified with successive waves of defections under the presidency of  Goodluck Jonathan —APC continues to gain strength. Under Tinubu’s watch, defections have flowed in the opposite direction: from the opposition into the ruling party. Just last week, three senators from the PDP defected to the APC. And there are strong indications that the exodus will continue.

As conventional wisdom goes, the value of vintage wine is determined by how long it has aged in the cask. By that logic, one would expect the PDP—which just held its 101st National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting—to be more mature than the APC, which has only held eight. Yet, the opposite is true: the PDP today resembles a patient in political intensive care (ICU), plagued by leadership malaise, while the APC is vibrant, energetic, and seemingly on political steroids—yet remarkably free from the rancor and instability that often plagues large parties.

The key difference lies in the capacity—or lack thereof—of party leaders to manage internal disagreements and ensure fairness. As the saying goes, a house divided against itself cannot stand. This truism is clearly playing out: while the APC grows stronger, the PDP is in shambles.

Wrecked by internal divisions, the PDP appears to be on life support. Its key figures—former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Senate President David Mark—have become the nucleus of the rebranded ADC. Ironically, their inability to keep the PDP united has now led them to champion a new platform. One must ask: if they could not manage the PDP, how can Nigerians entrust them with managing a country as complex as Nigeria?

This brings to mind the words of former President Muhammadu Buhari, who once dismissed a fringe movement as merely a “dot in a circle.” If these political actors have failed to hold together what is effectively a political dot, how do they hope to lead a national entity?

The decline of the PDP—once a dominant force—into its current state of decay should be the subject of scholarly interrogation in academic institutions. The results of such research should be made available to future politicians to help them avoid similar pitfalls. Conversely, the APC—despite being formed through a coalition of four disparate political parties—has defied predictions of collapse. Instead, it continues to absorb defectors and consolidate its position.

This brings me to the metaphor that frames this entire discourse: the distinction between playing checkers and playing chess.

It is within this context that I liken the ADC and its key actors to checkers players—moving reactively, often with emotion and short-term vision. On the other hand, President Tinubu and the APC are playing chess—a game that demands foresight, patience, and deep strategic thinking.

Those in the ADC may be throwing down the gauntlet against Tinubu and the APC in a bid to unseat both from power in 2027, but it appears they are deploying tactics more suited for checkers while Tinubu remains several moves ahead on the chessboard.

Checkers, Chess, and Nigeria’s Political Gameboard: Why ADC May Be Failing Forward

As I would not like to presume that all readers are familiar with the games of checkers and chess—both strategy board games played on an 8×8 grid—allow me to seek your indulgence for a brief explanation to provide contextual clarity.

Though played on the same board, the two games differ significantly in complexity and gameplay. Chess offers a deeper, more sophisticated strategic experience with multiple types of pieces and movement options, while checkers is simpler, with uniform pieces and limited movement, making it more accessible to beginners.

Checkers

                •               Simpler Gameplay:

Each player has 12 identical pieces that move and capture diagonally forward by jumping over an opponent’s piece.

                •               Objective:

To capture all of the opponent’s pieces or block them from moving.

                •               Less Strategic Depth:

Although some strategy is required, checkers lacks the complexity and tactical nuance of chess.

Chess

                •               Complex Gameplay:

Each player has 16 pieces of six different types, each with unique movement and capturing abilities.

                •               Objective:

To checkmate the opponent’s king—placing it under attack in such a way that it cannot escape capture.

                •               Deeper Strategic Depth:

Chess demands long-term planning, tactical precision, and mastery of various strategies.

In essence, while checkers introduces basic strategic thinking, chess challenges players to think several moves ahead, making it a more advanced and rewarding intellectual contest.

It is in light of these contrasts that I use both games to metaphorically describe Nigeria’s unfolding political landscape as the 2027 race begins to gather momentum—with all the political actors now firing on all turbocharged cylinders.

As I noted in a previous column titled “First-Class Politicians Playing Second-Hand Politics to Unseat Tinubu in 2027,” the incumbent president, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, appears to be several steps ahead of his would-be opponents. Many of them are still relying on outdated strategies from Tinubu’s own political playbook—particularly the one used in 2015 to unseat then-President Goodluck Jonathan via a coalition of opposition parties. That approach has since become obsolete under Tinubu’s current leadership.

The new trend is that the ruling APC under President Tinubu is attracting opposition politicians—not through coercion or threats by agencies like the EFCC, as some armchair critics have suggested, but rather through strategic outreach and calculated political accommodation. Tinubu and the APC have actively wooed these opposition figures, drawing them into the ruling fold.

In response to criticism that the newly restructured African Democratic Congress (ADC) is simply copying Tinubu’s coalition strategy, one of its prominent leaders, Nasir El-Rufai, denied the claim. He argued that, unlike 2013, when parties merged to form the APC, the current movement into the ADC is an individual-led convergence, not a party-to-party merger.

However, considering the big and delicate egos of the political heavyweights now joining ADC—many of whom harbor presidential ambitions—it’s difficult to imagine that this coalition will remain cohesive for long. With all due respect, the ADC appears to me more like a passing fad than a political force with staying power. Once competition for the 2027 presidential ticket intensifies, internal tensions could easily fracture the platform, halting its current momentum and fading it from public consciousness.

That said, there is at least one silver lining to the ADC’s emergence: it has helped silence the cacophony of alarmist voices that previously warned Nigeria was slipping into a one-party state due to the wave of defections into the APC.

Here’s how Femi Gbajabiamila, President Tinubu’s Chief of Staff, responded to reporters during the recent local government elections in Lagos:

“There has to be some level of opposition in a democracy.

However, for whatever the coalition is worth, I am not sure where it will go—that is, if it will go anywhere.”

Another important point is that even if the ADC and its eventual presidential candidate are defeated in 2027, it may still amount to failing forward, not backward. The lessons learned from mounting a serious challenge to Tinubu and the APC can prepare the party—and perhaps others—for a more credible shot at power in 2031.

In this light, it is very possible that the true beneficiaries of the ADC initiative will not be those presently championing it. I remain skeptical that the party can dislodge the APC at the national level in 2027.

My prediction is based on history. Recall that before 2013, opposition parties had made several attempts—particularly in 2011—to unite against the ruling PDP. Those efforts were largely ineffective, owing to the lack of political capital possessed by their flagbearers. It wasn’t until 2015, when the late President Muhammadu Buhari (CPC) was presented as presidential with Yemi Osinbajo (ACN) as vice presidential candidate under the newly formed APC, that a credible and electable coalition finally emerged.

Given that context, I believe the ADC may need more than one electoral cycle before it can hope to successfully challenge the APC’s dominance as the ruling party. And that brings me to Dr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) whichin 2023 proved to be a formidable political force in the northern axis of Nigeria.

As someone who values long-term strategy, I see a potential pathway for Kwankwaso to become President of Nigeria in 2031—but only by aligning with the APC now to get re-elected in 2027.

Here’s why:

Kwankwaso is the undisputed leader of the Kwankwasiyya Movement and commands over one million votes in Kano and surrounding areas. His party, the NNPP, won the governorship in Kano and holds considerable regional clout. However:

                1.             The NNPP is unlikely to become a national party.

It risks becoming a regional outfit similar to the PRP, founded by Aminu Kano, a northern political icon and patron of the Talakawa (the masses). If that happens, Kwankwaso may suffer the same fate as the late Obafemi Awolowo, the Yoruba sage whom Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu, the lgbo war- time -leader once described as “the best President Nigeria never had.”

                2.             Kwankwaso’s recent comments in the media—accusing the APC of marginalizing the North—suggest a regional mindset. This perception undermines his image as a viable national leader.

The two factors above are on top of the fact that age is on his side

So, why is Kwakwanso jeopardizing his chances of leading Nigeria in the nearest future?

Even Muhammadu Buhari, who had a reliable 12 million-vote base in the North, could not win the presidency of Nigeria until he allied with the South-West and South-East via the APC merger in 2013. If Buhari needed a national coalition, how does Kwankwaso—who barely controls one million votes—expect to win a national election?

That’s why I find it perplexing that Kwankwaso continues to make antagonistic statements against Tinubu and the APC. His recent remarks accusing the administration of short-changing the North on infrastructure seem designed to provoke regional sentiment against the president.

But, as they say, common sense can be nonsense in politics, especially when long-term strategy is sacrificed for short-term optics.

I would have expected Kwankwaso—whose family legacy includes “Okonkwo and Sons,” a humble trading post that evolved into what is now known as Kwankwaso Village—to appreciate the value of strategic partnerships. History shows that political underdogs often become giants through timely alliances. His current posture may just be a negotiating tactic—but only time will tell.

Conclusion:

If the recent report attributed to former President Olusegun Obasanjo, in which he reportedly advised the opposition ,perhaps sarcastically for the opposition to wait until 2031 before attempting to reclaim the presidency, is taken seriously, then CoS Femi Gbajabiamila is not alone in predicting that the ADC coalition may try but would not succeed in 2027.

Still, the emergence of a credible opposition—however short-lived—serves Nigeria well. It restores faith in multi-party democracy and rebuts earlier fears of a slide into one-party rule.

Given the historical precedent of how long it has taken for opposition parties to defeat incumbents, as evidenced by a couple of failed attempts as result of the collapse of coalition agreements,  I join millions of Nigerians in urging the ADC to aim for 2031, not 2027.

Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, development strategist, and alumnus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, is a Commonwealth Institute scholar and a former commissioner in the Delta State government. He sent this piece from Abuja.