Liz Truss, Penny Mordaunt and Kemi Badenoch are facing a three-way battle for survival on Tuesday as the Tory leadership race narrows again.
The fourth round of voting by the party’s 358 MPs will take place on Tuesday afternoon, less than 24 hours after the ejection of Tom Tugenhadt narrowed the field from five to four.
What will happen next?
The lowest-placed candidate will once again be eliminated in Tuesday’s vote, which will take place from 1 pm to 3 pm, with a result announced at 4 pm.
A fifth and final round of MPs’ voting is set for Wednesday, which will narrow the final three to two, assuming no candidate withdraws before then.
The two final candidates will then be put to the party’s membership in a month-long battle for the keys of Downing Street – embarking on a tour of the country as they take part in regional hustings – before a winner is announced on 5 September.
Rishi Sunak’s place on the members’ ballot looks all but guaranteed, with 115 MPs supporting him – a double-digit lead over all of his opponents, and just shy of the ‘magic’ 120 (a third of the votes on offer, plus one) that are needed to sail through.
This leaves Liz Truss, Penny Mordaunt and Kemi Badenoch facing off in the coming days for the final spot.
Who is vulnerable in the next vote?
On paper, it is former treasury and equalities minister Kemi Badenoch who looks the most vulnerable on Tuesday, as of the remaining candidates she is in last place, with 58 votes.
But she made the biggest gains aside from Mr Sunak on Monday, putting on nine votes after a polished performance in the two TV debates held over the weekend.
Supporters claim she is now peeling away votes from Ms Truss, who sits in third with 71 votes – but Mrs. Badenoch has a large hill to climb in less than 24 hours to pass her.
Ms Truss also appears vulnerable in third, after her hopes to make huge gains on Monday were dashed.
The third-placed Foreign Secretary gained the backing of just seven more MPs – well short of the 13 to 18 i understood her campaign was expecting following the elimination of hard Brexiteer Suella Braverman.
Things are not going much better for trade minister Penny Mordaunt, who held onto second place on Monday but slid backward by one vote, after days of public attacks on her previous policy positions, including on trans rights, and accusations that she underperformed as a minister.
She will be hoping on Tuesday to pick up more supporters from centrist Tom Tugendhat, who was eliminated from the contest with 31 MPs backing him.
But if either of Mrs. Badenoch or Ms. Truss is eliminated in Tuesday’s ballot, the other could hoover up their votes on Wednesday – leaving Ms. Mordaunt with a challenging path to the final two.
Timeline
- The fourth round of voting by Tory MPs will happen in the afternoon of Tuesday 19 July
- The final day of voting by MPs will happen on Wednesday 20 July, leaving two candidates
- From Thursday 21 July the Tory Party members will choose between the two candidates, as a series of regional events are held
- Leader of the Conservative Party announced on Monday 5 September
- Queen invites the new leader to form a Government on Tuesday 6 September
Source: inews.co.uk
