It is a great and humbling honour to have been asked to deliver the first NIIA Distinguished Lecture for 2025, on the theme, Lagos and Nigeria 2030: Projections of a World Power.
Let me start by thanking the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), under the leadership of Professor Eghosa Osaghae, a distinguished political scientist, for extending this prestigious invitation to me. As Nigeria’s foremost think tank on global affairs, the NIIA is the proud embodiment of a robust legacy of intellectual leadership, consistently articulating Nigeria’s place in a world that never stops changing.
The NIIA also happens to be a historic site, in its own right. Not only is it the place where the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) was born 50 years ago, it is also, from an architectural perspective, an iconic Lagos landmark, designed and built around the period of Nigeria’s Independence, and adorned with artwork from Ben Enwonwu and Erhabor Emokpae, two of Nigeria’s most famous and revered artists.
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1. I very much welcome this opportunity to add my thoughts to the ongoing dialogue on Nigeria’s place on the international stage. I have been asked to speak on the theme, “Lagos and Nigeria 2030: Projections of a World Power.” I find the theme especially inspiring, given how it readily acknowledges the very strong interconnection between Lagos and Nigeria, and the fact that there is no future version of Nigeria that will not be deeply shaped and impacted by Lagos. Malcolm X once said, “The future belongs to those who prepare for it today.” The theme of this lecture invites us to dream, to proceed on a bold exploration of what the future holds for the world’s most populous black nation. Even more, it asks us to, in our envisioning, settle on a Nigeria that is a global power in all ramifications. Global Power in the 21st century What does world power mean in the 21st century? What does it mean for Nigeria to be a global power? I would define global power as being essentially multidimensional, combining economic power, diplomatic and geopolitical clout, technological capacity, cultural and soft power, military and defence strength, demography, and resource abundance.
2. We must also acknowledge that the assessment of world power is not a static concept, it is one that constantly evolves. There was a time when global power was measured largely by how many colonies a country occupied, and the size of its naval fleet—that asset being the primary way in which strength was projected and control maintained over a vast range of colonies accessible only by sea. Today, while a well-resourced Navy is still a vital projector of national strength, the landscape—or seascape—has changed dramatically. Wars are now primarily fought, not at sea, but instead in the air and the cyber-domain. The point I am making is about the fluidity of the indicators of global power, as technology advances and geopolitical realities change. A History of National Visions The concept of “Nigeria 2030” brings to mind a series of national and international visions. On the domestic scene, Vision 2010 comes to mind, followed by Vision 20:2020, and then Nigeria Agenda 2050, launched by the Buhari administration in 2023, and which seek to place Nigeria among the world’s leading middle-income economies by 2050. Upon assumption of office, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu declared a goal of making Nigeria a 1 Trillion Dollar economy by 2030. Nigeria’s commitments to the Paris Climate Agreement.
3. Envisage that we will end gas flaring by 2030 while also generating a third of our electricity from renewable sources. On the subnational level, we have Lagos State Development Plan 2052; our 30-year development plan that we launched in 2022, eloquently articulating our ambition to become Africa’s Model Mega City and a Global, Economic and Financial Hub that is safe, secure, functional and productive. The Lagos State 30 Year Plan is anchored on four pillars: Thriving Economy, Modern Infrastructure, Human-Centric City, and Effective Governance. 2030 also brings to mind the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), being the target year set in 2025 when the SDGs emerged—seventeen pivotal goals meant to transition humanity into a truly just, equitable and prosperous world—to replace the Millennial Development Goals.
4. As 2030 bears down on us with determination and urgency, fears are mounting already that those global targets will be missed, given, on the one hand, the scale of funding required and the limits of committed resources, and on the other hand, disruptions such as Covid-19 and various geopolitical conflicts and natural disasters around the world. Let me quickly add a bit more context to Vision 2010, developed as the guiding document that would take Nigeria into the long- 4 anticipated 21st century. It is significant in being the last Nigerian national vision or plan overseen by a military government. The then Head of State, General Sani Abacha inaugurated the Vision 2010 Committee on Sept 27, 1996—29 years ago this month; the Committee worked over the next 12 months and submitted the final report on September 30, 1997; one day ahead of Nigeria’s 37th Independence anniversary. That 37-year-old country, tightly held in the grip of military rule, has since then come a long way. Today it is a grey-haired 64 year old, on the cusp of 65, still standing strong despite many challenges, old and new, still as desirous as ever of attaining its full potential. Military rule has since given way to 26 years of unbroken democracy—the longest stretch of democracy in our history, and a strong affirmation of how much we have matured as a people and a polity in the last three decades. There is now no doubt that democracy is here to stay in Nigeria; and that, however imperfect it may be, it is preferable to military rule. As Winston Churchill said, “No one pretends that democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time.” Influence Across the Decades.
5. Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, join me on a quick trip down memory lane, examining Nigeria’s influence and power since we attained self-governing status. Nigeria’s aspirations to be a world power have their roots in our Independence from the British—an independence that we fought and clamored for, albeit in a non-violent manner. It is said that the world’s population of independent black people doubled at that moment, midnight separating September 30 and October 1, 1960, when the Union Jack was lowered for the last time and the green-white-green replaced it. Seventeen African countries attained Independence in 1960, but none with the kind of scale and promise that Nigeria embodied. The December 5, 1960 edition of TIME Magazine has Prime Minister Tafawa Balewa on the cover, heralding a story in the magazine titled “NIGERIA: The Black Rock.” The magazine proclaimed, and I quote: “In the long run, the most important and enduring face of Africa might well prove to be that presented by Nigeria […] the Federation of Nigeria stands a giant among Lilliputians; last October, when Nigeria’s 40 million people got their independence, the free population of Black Africa jumped 50%. Backed by such numbers, Nigeria’s sober voice urging the steady, cautious way to prosperity and national.
6. Greatness seems destined to exert ever-rising influence in emergent Africa.” Powerful words in every sense. We asserted bravery by breaking diplomatic ties with France in 1961 to protest the country’s nuclear testing in Algeria, and then went on to join the Non- Aligned Movement in 1964. One of the highlights of this our first decade of Independence was the triumphant State Visit of Prime Minister Tafawa Balewa to the United States in 1961, during which he was hosted to dinner at the White House by President Kennedy, and addressed the United States Congress—a milestone that we have yet to reprise in the more than 60 years since then. We were at that point in history the world’s pre-eminent black power, with seemingly boundless potential. Things did not go as envisaged, with political upheaval, military coups and a civil war. But we never lost that sense of ourselves as a continental giant, with the power to shape the course of global affairs. From the role we played in the long fight against apartheid, to our support for liberation movements in Zimbabwe and Angola. It is not out of place to look at these interventions and regard the 1970s and 1980s as a high point of diplomatic audacity for Nigeria.
7. On January 11, 1976, at an Extraordinary Summit of the Organization of African Unity (OAU), in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Nigeria’s Head of State, General Murtala Muhammed delivered his “Africa has Come of Age” speech, a speech that, fifty years later, still rings as powerfully as ever. The speech in which he said, and I quote: “Mr. Chairman, Africa has come of age. It is no longer under the orbit of any extra continental power. It should no longer take orders from any country, however powerful. The fortunes of Africa are in our hands to make or mar. For too long have we been kicked around; for too long have we been treated like adolescents who cannot discern their interests and act accordingly […] The time has come when we should make it clear that we can decide for ourselves; that we know our own interests and how to protect those interest…” We stood up boldly to Western powers on apartheid, penalised foreign companies that did business in apartheid South Africa, raised more money than any other country to support the efforts of our brothers and sisters in South Africa, hosted the largest festival of black arts the world had ever seen, and provided very generous take-off grants to the newly independent country of Zimbabwe.
8. In the late 1980s, Prof Bolaji Akinyemi, Director-General of the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA) between 1975 and 1983, conceived of a “Concert of Medium Powers”, to build on what the Non Aligned Movement had started. That period also gave us the Technical Aid Corps (TAC)—which to this day remains a cornerstone of Nigerian soft power across Africa and the Caribbean—and then ECOMOG, which helped restore peace in Liberia and Sierra Leone. Sports took center-stage in the 1990s, which became an era of footballing success and clout: winning the 1994 African Cup of Nations, qualifying for our first ever World Cup, and winning the Olympic Gold in football in 1996. All of these happened even as we found ourselves increasingly cut off from the global community, following the shocking execution of Ken Saro Wiwa in 1995. 1999 ushered in democracy, to close a decade that saw much political turmoil and international disconnection. The 21st century has seen us grappling with the demands and tensions of democracy, constitutionalism and federalism, and it does seem, in my view, that much of our focus has turned inwards, away from the adventurous foreign policy of the military era. Nigeria in 2025: Strengths and Weaknesses.
9. Let me now return to the concept of World or Global Power, and how it relates to Nigeria. Earlier I outlined the multidimensionality of world power, existing along a spectrum that takes in the economic, diplomacy, technology, culture, defence, demography, and resource endowments. So, how are we faring as a nation in this regard? I will start with our areas of biggest contemporary strength: demography and culture. United Nation’s projections put us at 400 million people by the year 2050, making us the third mosrt populous country in the world after India and China. Our people are, without a doubt, our most important assets, above our oil and gas, above our marine and forest wealth. Today, we already have one of the largest populations of young people in the world—an estimated one hundred million people under the age of 20—making it impossible to envision the workforce of the 21st century without fully accounting for Nigeria. This is an extraordinary asset, but only if properly harnessed. Culturally, we are already a global cultural force, our flag held aloft in global spaces in fields ranging from literature to film to music and fashion. In diplomacy and defence, we are a voice to be reckoned with on the continent and beyond. In the African Union, we hold the coveted seat heading the Political Affairs, Peace and Security (PAPS) department.
10. The equally coveted headquarters of the new African Energy Bank and the proposed African Central Bank will both sit in the Federal Capital Territory. Our peacekeepers are active and respected across the continent, on ECOWAS and United Nations missions, and our Navy has been designated to provide strategic Sea Lift services in support of AU peacekeeping, humanitarian and emergency response operations. Our Armed Forces have acquired tremendous experience in fighting insurgency, and the relative peace being experienced in the Northeast of the country is testament to the sacrifice and dedication of our heroic troops. The Number Two official at the United Nations is a Nigerian, as are the Head of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), Chairperson of the World Customs Organisation (WCO), President-Elect of the Union for International Cancer Control (UICC), Vice Chair of the Council of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), and the Vice President for Africa of the International Association for Ports and Harbours (IAPH), among others. In recent years Nigerians have led the World Medical Association (WMA) and the World Federation of Engineering Organizations (WFEO). Projecting Global Power by Optimizing Latent Potential.
11. Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, we must now, given the range and depth of our talent, our endowments, and our potential, focus wholly on maximising these to unlock our power to the fullest, especially in those fields and arenas in which we are still lagging behind. We must do this while also consolidating and conquering new ground in the spheres in which we have already demonstrated strength. In the area of technology, in particular cutting-edge technologies like cloud computing and artificial intelligence, we must make ourselves felt not just as consumers but producers also. For too long Africa has primarily been a consumer of foreign technology, lacking the confidence and the wherewithal of our Asian counterparts, who have showed the world how to achieve unprecedented technological revolution within a mere generation or two. In the area of the economy, as I said earlier, President Tinubu has a vision to make Nigeria a one trillion dollar economy by 2030. It is a worthy and achievable vision that will be powered by both oil and non-oil economic growth. We are all aware of the very bold reform steps that have already been taken in the last two years in the direction of this ambition: the removal of petrol subsidies, unification of multiple foreign exchange rates, unprecedented reforms in fiscal, tax, insurance, and energy; and the implementation of a program of social investment and legacy infrastructure projects across the country.
12. Lagos: Nigeria’s Laboratory for Growth, Innovation and Reform Let me now turn to focus on where Lagos stands and what Lagos means in this projection of Nigeria as a World Power. There is no contesting the fact that Lagos is the beating heart of Nigeria— the reason why Nigeria is the regional and continental leader that it is. Nigeria’s capacity to convert every remaining ounce of raw potential that we possess, into the hard currency of world power and global influence will depend, to a large extent, on Lagos. Let me put it in a simple and direct way: The future of Nigeria’s economic competitiveness lies in Lagos. The Lekki Deep Sea Port, now operational, is the most modern on the continent, serving as a gateway for trade and for the actualisation of the Africa Continental Free Trade Area—the largest free trade agreement in the world in terms of the number of participating countries. The Lekki Free Trade Zone, the Dangote Refinery and Petrochemical Plant, Eko Atlantic City, the Coastal Road, Badagry-Sokoto Expressway, Lagos-Ibadan Standard Gauge Rail, and the proposed 4th Mainland Bridge, Lekki International Airport, and Lagos International Financial Center, are not just projects—they are harbingers of Lagos as a hub of global commerce and finance.
13. This means that we must do even more work to align the energies of Lagos and of Nigeria. Within this alignment lies a transformative synergy that will fast-track our collective journeys to enduring greatness. This is part of the driving force behind our advocacy for the conferment of a special status on Lagos—it is not because the rest of Nigeria doesn’t matter, no. Instead what we are saying is that Nigeria can scale up its growth and development by approaching and treating Lagos as a pivotal leverage that can help unleash collective national potential. Among the many fascinating concepts that Lagos embodies, within the context of Nigeria, is that of a national policy and innovation laboratory, where national experiments have been and will continue to be piloted and fine-tuned for rollout to the entire country, not just in other States but even also at the Federal level. In this regard we have seen such initiatives as the pioneering of a subnational security trust fund, as well as subnational leadership in tax reform, traffic management emergency response, and others, which have been replicated in various other States across the country.
14. Lagos was also the first, under the leadership of the then Governor Bola Ahmed Tinubu, to create Local Council Development Areas (LCDAs) as a way of reforming and expanding local governance in a way that responds more fully to the needs of the people. The point I am making is that Lagos will play a significant role in Nigeria’s full manifestation as a global power. Nigeria’s economic ambitions will be enabled by industrial and free trade zones, logistics infrastructure, financial centers and 21st century urban developments—all areas in which Lagos is showing leadership. Despite not being a State with abundant land resources—we are in fact the smallest State by land mass in Nigeria—we have been bold and visionary about our agricultural ambition, leading us to develop some of the largest agricultural processing and logistics facilities in Africa, including the Imota Rice Mill; the Lagos Central Food Security Systems and Logistics Park, Ketu-Ereyun, Epe; and to host private sector landmarks like home to the largest urea fertilizer production facility on the continent. There is also the half a trillion Naira ‘Produce for Lagos’ Programme to bolster the resilience of our food system.
15. All of these are signposts to what the future of Nigeria looks like. You can indeed turn to Lagos and see glimpses of a truly global Nigeria: the mass of undersea cables and state-of-the-art data centers heralding a digital revolution; the array of poised for unicorn status, an expanding light rail system that has carried over five million passengers so far without a single incident, and a network of stock and commodity exchanges that are driving unprecedented wealth creation and entrepreneurial and financial innovation. In culture and entertainment, we are a megacity on the rise. A few weeks from now we will become the first African city to host the UIM E1 World Championship, a prestigious all-electric powerboat racing series that will further reinforce our standing as a fun-loving city that is at the same time committed to climate action. Our John Randle Center for Yoruba Culture and History has become a forerunner for other impactful and similarly iconic museum projects like the Museum of West African Art (MOWAA) in Benin City and the Ilorin Museum & Garden in Ilorin, Kwara State.
16. The revamped Wole Soyinka Centre for Culture and the Creative Arts, formerly known as the National Theatre, Iganmu, and the centerpiece of Nigeria’s unforgettable FESTAC celebration, is once again poised to bring the world to Nigeria. We must, to quote a popular Christian saying and Biblical concept, learn to count our blessings as a nation and a people, and name them one by one, at all times. Catalysing Self Confidence for Leadership in the 21st Century. Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, it is not enough to be a world power; we must be seen by all and sundry to be a world power in the fullest sense. Which means we must actively project this power 24 hour a day, seven days a week, 52 weeks a year, and do so in hard and soft ways. Self-confidence is a pre-requisite for this projection. Our audacity has to be seen and felt by all and sundry.
17. I look around me and the Nigerians I know are all audacious people. This Lagos, our Lagos, is a land of doing and striving, of hustling for a tomorrow that is better than today. What we must now do is to convert those individual energies into a collective tsunami of cultural and national self-confidence that will enable us break through inertia and dysfunction, and rise to take our place in the comity of nations. Without asserting an unwavering belief in our inherent greatness, the actual manifestation of global greatness would be impossible. It is my opinion that we have allowed our many challenges and struggles over the decades to blunt the edges of self-belief. It was audacity that pushed John F. Kennedy to, on May 26, 1961, direct that the United States “commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to earth.” Sixteen (16) months later, he uttered the even more memorable words: “We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard.” Barely fourteen (14) months later, President Kennedy was dead. But the dream he sowed and watered was one that could never die. Six years after his death, that dream became reality, a testament to the sheer power of unrestrained audacity. Of course, we must admit that a lot has changed over the decades, we can no longer leverage our abundance of oil in the way we used to, when the United States depended heavily on us for supplies.
18. But even as the power of oil has dwindled, gas on the other hand is on the ascendancy, and we must never stop reminding ourselves that we are a gas nation even more than an oil one, and that this gas is a sought-after global fuel that will continue to be of huge value for many decades to come, given its positioning as a ‘transition fuel’ in the shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy. We must not fall for the trap of living in the so-called ‘good old days’. It is very tempting to become obsessed with a time when it seemed as if the world was at our feet, and to thereafter languish in regret and recrimination. I would like to counsel against this. We must never commit the grievous error of focusing only on what has gone wrong, or has not gone according to plan. We must perfect the art of dreaming big and then working hard to turn these dreams into reality. We must look forward with optimism and boldness, learning from the errors and mistakes of the past whilst refusing to be held back by them. We must learn from the examples of others as well, who have walked the path that we intend to walk. I will close on this note: Nigeria has everything it takes to be a world power. We have fought and conquered much, in our history. We survived a Civil War, survived several coup d’etats, and pushed ahead to entrench democracy. Most recently we tackled Covid-19 in a manner that impressed the world, with Lagos being both the epicenter of the pandemic and a leading actor in the national response.
19. We have waged a successful war against terrorism, denying Boko Haram and ISWAP their goal of establishing a Caliphate on our land. We are now extending that energy to deal decisively with banditry. Under the leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, we are resetting the very foundations of our economy, through policy, legislation and diplomacy. As the march towards 2030 progresses, we must keep our eyes on the goal, mobilizing every energy, resource and partnership, redoubling our efforts to ensure that the bold ambitions of 2030 do not slip away. I can clearly picture what 2030 looks like: a trillion-dollar national economy, winning the war against poverty and crime, ruling the world with its arts, culture, technology and sports, powered by the jewel that is Lagos: a model megacity for the 21st century.
I thank you all for listening.
•Lecture by the Governor of Lagos State, Mr. Babajide Sanwo-Olu, at the first Distinguished Lecture for 2025 of the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA), Victoria Island, Lagos, on Tuesday 16th September 2025.
