El-Rufai: Tinubu is Not Jonathan

MALLAM Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai, a former leading member of the ruling APC but now a frontline opposition figure who has been fishing in the troubled waters of Nigerian politics for some time, may have been dragged into the water by a fish heavier than his modest body frame. And like still waters that run deep, El-Rufai may be drowning fast into the bottomless murky waters of Nigerian politics where he may be devoured by sharks and crocodiles. The heavier fish that has dragged El-Rufai into the troubled waters of Nigerian politics is President Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the sharks and crocodiles that may devour him are state institutions such as the DSS and EFCC. To say that Mallam, as he is fondly called by his admirers, is in trouble is to understate the obvious.

A competent public administrator, astute politician, accomplished technocrat and one of northern Nigeria’s brightest minds, Mallam El-Rufai is a man of many competences. After a distinguished private practice as a first class quantity surveyor, El-Rufai became a public servant by “accident” when he was appointed as the director-general of the Bureau of Public Enterprises, from where he supervised the transfer of the means of economic production from government to the private sector. He was subsequently appointed the minister of the Federal Capital Territory, where he undertook the task of restoring Abuja’s city master plan, a task he successfully delivered, thereby making Abuja one of the most liveable cities in Africa. The icing on the cake for his illustrious public service career was when he was elected the governor of Kaduna State in 2015 on the platform of then newly formed APC.

As governor of Kaduna State, the former capital of the defunct Northern Region, Mallam El-Rufai emerged as a powerful and influential political figure flying on the wings of the phenomenally popular Muhammadu Buhari as his political son. I have often described El-Rufai as the Buhari’s ‘Khaliphah’ [successor] in the Muslim North. El-Rufai’s oxymoronic character and his capability at manipulating ethno-geographic and religious sentiments stood him out as the master of identity politics, making him a deeply divisive political figure whose personality evoked fanatical adoration and disdainful spite alike. But because Nigeria’s democratic process is primarily driven by ethnic and religious identity politics, El-Rufai played a central role in the emergence of President Tinubu as the standard-bearer of the APC, going into the 2023 presidential election. However, things fell apart between him and President Tinubu when he was dramatically dropped from the ministerial list, citing security reasons.

In my reaction to what I considered “Tinubu’s Kiss of Death to El-Rufai,” I wrote on this page in August 2023 thus, “While El-Rufai may have been a divisive and controversial political figure, who appears to harbour animosity towards Nigeria’s Christian half of its population, President Tinubu will have to manage his foe-turned-friend in order to prevent him from turning a foe once again. Because the very reasons El-Rufai is being rejected are the same reasons that led to his victory in the 2023 presidential election as the former of Kaduna State governor deployed his armada of identity politics arsenal to squeeze out votes in the Muslim North for Tinubu against Atiku Abubakar, a fellow Hausa-Fulani northern Muslim, in the last presidential election. An El-Rufai is a friend to avoid and an enemy to prevent. And an idle El-Rufai may become an opposition workshop going into the 2027 presidential election.”

And it came to pass that El-Rufai emerged a leading opposition figure who eventually left the APC to join the new opposition coalition party, ADC, and has since become a vocal critic of his former friend-turned-foe. But while I cautioned that he should have been managed better to prevent this predictable turnout of events, the advice El-Rufai was not given was that Tinubu is not Jonathan. And the same tactics that worked in 2015 against former President Goodluck Jonathan will be impotent against President Tinubu because thunder rarely strikes twice on the same spot. Besides, President Tinubu was the leader of APC and the chief sponsor of the tactics and strategy that El-Rufai now seeks to apply in the opposition to his government.

As the brilliant mind that he is, it is expected that El-Rufai and his comrades in ADC would make the opposition more about the prospects of better Nigeria than a rigidly anti-Tinubu movement, by providing a solid alternative to the current status quo. El-Rufai and his comrades in the ADC started out by lashing out on the personality and leadership style of President Tinubu without proffering a single solution to his actions and inactions. Pressed by the media for tangible alternatives, the ADC hurriedly put together a 50-man ‘manifesto committee,’ which is yet to turn in its report. That ADC was launched without a manifesto and still doesn’t have one is like a child born without a brain or new car without a brain box.

Apparently propelled by the bitterness, anger and frustration that came with the feeling of being used and dumped by President Tinubu, El-Rufai is waging a tactless political war with a centuries-old strategy in the modern warfare of politics. In the absence of an ideologically coherent manifesto, El-Rufai has resorted to rhetoric, wild accusations and propagating conspiracy fallacies against the Tinubu administration in a manner that suggests a personal vendetta. And because we are not ready to die in war of personal vendetta between former friends, El-Rufai’s strategy is not gaining traction among the Nigerian people, as his riotous notes are striking the wrong cord. Nobody will file out on Election Day 2027 to replace one set of political ruiners with another.

By carrying his antics as far as to admit listening to tapped phone conversations of Nuhu Ribadu, the National Security Adviser of Nigeria in order to convince the public that indeed the state is after him for political reasons,he has landed in serious trouble. And because, indeed, Tinubu is not Jonathan, El-Rufai has been arrested and detained by the EFCC on allegations of corruption while the DSS has filed charges against him less than 72 hours after informing the world about phone-tapping of the NSA. Unlike Jonathan who overlooked similar allegations buy El-Rufai, which created an impression of him as an ‘untouchable’  that emboldened his support base in the Muslim North and resulted in his loss of election, President Tinubu is not willing to take chances. By his arrest, detention and imminent arraignment in court on multiple charges, the once untouchable El-Rufai has been touched and demystified, to the chagrin of his support base.

Democratic governance stands on the two legs of government and opposition. While we have often lamented the failure of government in Nigeria, not enough consideration is given to the failure of the opposition. The political party system, which is supposed to be the brain box of our democracy, is, unfortunately, the weakest link in our democratic value chain because it’s just a box without a brain. And President Tinubu may go into the 2027 presidential as the most unpopular incumbent but emerge victorious with a wide margin because of the failure of opposition in Nigeria.