Cocoa Prices Crash Below $4,000 per Tonne on Oversupply, Other Factors

Cocoa prices fell below $4,000 per metric ton on 10 February 2026, extending a downward trend that has intensified since January.

This brings the month-to-date loss to over 10%, with prices currently around $3,780 per metric ton, raising concerns of a repeat of January’s more than 29% decline.

Analysts attribute the continued slide to favorable growing conditions in major West African cocoa-producing countries, which have boosted supplies reaching the ports.

Chocolate maker Mondelez reported that the latest cocoa pod count in West Africa is 7% above the five-year average and “materially higher” than last year’s crop.

What the data is saying

Cocoa supply has risen above demand, according to analysts’ projections for the 2025/2026 season.

StoneX projected a global cocoa surplus of 287,000 MT in 2025/2026, followed by a surplus of 267,000 MT in 2026/2027.

On 23 January 2026, the International Cocoa Organization reported that global cocoa stocks surged to 1.1 million metric tons, up 4.2% year-on-year.
Alongside oversupply, weakening demand is also affecting the market.
Barry Callebaut AG, the world’s largest bulk chocolate maker, reported a 22% decline in cocoa division sales volume for the quarter ended 30 November 2025.

According to the company’s 28 January report, “negative market demand and a prioritization of volume towards higher-return segments within cocoa” caused the decline.

In Europe, Q4 cocoa grindings fell 8.3% year-on-year to 304,470 MT—the lowest fourth-quarter total in 12 years. In Asia, grindings dropped 4.8% to 197,022 MT as demand weakened.

Meanwhile, abundant ICE-monitored cocoa inventories have put additional pressure on prices, reaching a 3.25-month high of 1,812,564 bags on Monday.

The combination of oversupply and shrinking demand could further depress global cocoa prices, potentially repeating the 2025 decline when prices fell to $6,065 per metric ton.

Get up to speed

In 2025, cocoa futures fell by over 44% on the commodities market, sliding from above $10,950 to $6,065 per metric ton.

The full-year decline would have exceeded 50% if not for a bullish correction in December, when prices rebounded from $5,456 to $6,065.

According to Oran van Dort, commodity analyst at Rabobank, cocoa prices are expected to remain on a downward trend, as favourable growing conditions in West Africa are likely to keep supply strong and allow more beans to reach ports.

What to know

Year-to-date, cocoa prices have fallen by over 37% in the global commodity market.

Cocoa is approaching a support zone near $3,200 per metric ton, which traders will be watching closely for a potential break lower or a rebound above $5,000-resistance.

In Nigeria, the fifth-largest cocoa producer, December cocoa exports were reported at 54,790 metric tons, marking a 17% year-on-year increase.