Ademola Adeleke’s Make-or-Break Second Term Quest

At a recent rally in Osogbo, the music was loud, the crowd animated, yet the governor’s smile carried an unmistakable tautness.

Governor Ademola Adeleke is seeking reelection in the August 8, 2026, governorship poll in Osun State. This time, however, he is contesting under the Accord Party (AP) after leaving the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) that brought him to office in 2022.

That switch is no small footnote but something that alters the electoral arithmetic. The PDP’s internal tumult left him politically exposed, but it also provided structure across the state’s 30 local government areas. By stepping away, he has chosen a leaner platform with less entrenched machinery.

In political terms, this is a high-stakes gambit. Personal popularity must now compensate for organisational thinness. The question is whether charisma can substitute for ward-level agents, polling day logistics, and the quotidian grind of mobilisation.

Meanwhile, the APC has rediscovered its cohesion. Backed by federal influence and a renewed sense of purpose, it has fielded a candidate determined to reclaim the governorship. The contest, already febrile, is sharpening into a referendum on Adeleke’s incumbency.

Complicating matters further, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) under former governor Rauf Aregbesola looms as a potential spoiler. His grassroots network retains residual loyalty in key constituencies. A three-way race would splinter votes in ways that defy easy prediction.

Voter sentiment is also evolving. In 2022, the campaign rode on personality and protest, and the Dancing Senator won the day. Today, discourse has shifted toward infrastructure, security and fiscal stewardship. Performance metrics, once peripheral, now sit at the centre of debate.

To his credit, Adeleke still commands fervent support in many communities. Religious leaders and local influencers have publicly aligned with him, lending a moral cadence to his bid. Yet elections are won by numbers, not noise.

Four years ago, fractured opponents cleared his path. In 2026, a more consolidated field stands before Adeleke, and the man once buoyed by division must now survive unity.