1.Peter Obi can double his followership if he can get his hordes to stop gaslighting people, become less aggressive and less abusive. Let the obedients become meek and make friends rather than enemies.
- Atiku and Obi MUST come to an accomodation. Any combination that excludes either of both is doomed to certain failure. South West and South South is on lock down by the BAT. Obi’s stranglehold on the South East has not waned. Atiku’s influence in the North remains huge and may even be stronger now with the anti BAT discontent which is being feverishly countered.
- Let no one make the mistake of thinking that the ADC will shut the BAT out of the North. BAT is a complicated and strategically befuddling player and his foot soldiers up North are not sleeping through this. So far, we have heard a lot of chest thumping by many big northern politicians in the cold(Rufai et al) It is however clear to the discerning that these protests would not have happened if they had been part of this government.
- The communication of ADC’s reasons for insisting on regime change have not been well articulated. The loudest voices complain of personal hunger(Amaechi), the others say “Nigerians are hungry”, and so on and so forth. While the hunger under BAT is a progression in intensity from hunger under PMB, they are yet to tell us how they will end the hunger regime.
- We need to know which policies on Agriculture will end hunger, which policies on security will end banditry and insurgency, which policies on currency exchange will return dollar to 200 or 300naira!!! How we can buy fuel at 300 naira again.
- They should tell us if they intend to reverse the policies that has led to intensification of hunger: High cost of fuel for instance. Do they want to return to the subsidy regime? Or they want to reverse the currency exchange policy that has escalated costs of imported items? Nigerians want to know what they intend to do.
- There is intense focus on the Tinubu government, the publicity machinery of the ADC led by the debonair gentleman Bolaji Abdullahi recently blew the whistle on the planned privatisation of the refineries and raised very valid questions about the money invested already and the need for an audit. Good. But that is only a little help because any right thinking Nigerian must agree that those refineries must go. Ok let them provide the figures but go they must. Even if ADC comes they will still go because even the Turaki himself has voiced this sentiment in the past. How does that create any differentiation?
- What is the ADC manifesto? Your manifesto cannot be a burning need to get rid of the Tinubu Administration and their vehicle, the APC. We need a clear cut reason for that and the hunger hypothesis is not enough. If that manifesto exists it is not communicated. All we hear is the hunger hypothesis.
- Where does all this lead to? Differentiation is urgently required. As far as we know, all the leading lights of APC in government and the opposition ADC are more or less birds of the same feather. There are 2 ways to win: Win by owning the minds of the electorate or rig to distraction. If you are not differentiating and building a hearts and minds gospel then what are you doing? These endless media shouting matches are not enough.
Strong messages must cut through the clutter.
And if you are not in government you cannot beat the incumbent by rigging. Both sides know the scores. You are all friends and you know each others secrets. There is only one way to win for the ADC- The hard way…
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- Can ADC differentiate and defeat APC? It’s possible but so far they have not shown that they mean business. I have not seen any fresh face in their line up. Gen David Mark the ADC chairman, 2 time senate president. What’s the message he is bringing to the table? Former Gov. Aregbesola, 2 time governor of osun who showed civil servants “pepper” is an angry man, like El Rufai and they are both angry because of their exiled status from their political families, or so it appears.
The party needs to do 3 urgent things: -Come up with a clear mission statement that differentiates it.
-Articulate a clear plan that goes beyond attack dog strategy that says more about the incumbent leadership’s failings than your own plans!
-Show us some new faces! Successful, fairly young and articulate Nigerians from the different regions who are not known politicians with all the baggage! Let them have high and visible positions in the party and let them be seen to help position ADC as something new to behold
For now, I must say, all people can see, is just a long list of tired, maybe frustrated old men lusting for power. And perceptions, trust me, trumps reality, all the time.
Mix it gentlemen!
Akin Adeoya is a fellow of the National Institute of Marketing of Nigeria(NIMN) and Publisher of M2.
