ADC’s Gubernatorial Vacuum: 7 States, 159 LGAs and the Kano Swing State Disaster, By Chief Okoi Obono-Obla

ADC has no guber candidate in: Abia, Cross River, Enugu, Ebonyi, Kano, Katsina, Taraba.

LGA BREAKDOWN:

Abia – 17 LGAs – SE – No ADC guber
Cross River – 18 LGAs – SS – No ADC guber
Enugu – 17 LGAs – SE – No ADC guber
Ebonyi – 13 LGAs – SE – No ADC guber
Kano – 44 LGAs – NW – No ADC governor – DISASTER
Katsina – 34 LGAs – NW – No ADC governor
Taraba – 16 LGAs – NE – No ADC guber

TOTAL = 159 LGAs = 20.5% of Nigeria.

WHY KANO IS DEVASTATING:

Kano alone has 44 LGAs, ∼5.9 million registered voters, and 5,000+ polling units. It is the largest voting bloc in the North and the classic swing state that decides presidential elections. In 2023, Kano gave above 900,000 votes to NNPP Kwankaso, above 800,000 votes to APC Tinubu, and less than 400,000 votes to PDP Atiku.

With no ADC guber candidate in Kano:

No 44 LGA Coordinators
No 444 Ward Coordinators
No ∼10,000 Polling Unit agents for the triple election on Jan 15 (President + Senate + House same day)
No Kwankwasiyya structure to borrow, no Ganduje structure to negotiate with

You cannot win President in Nigeria without Kano. You cannot even get 25% in Kano without a guber structure in 44 LGAs.

LEGAL FINALITY:

Same as NDC. Under Electoral Act Sec 33 and 34(1), empty slots cannot be filled by fresh primaries after the deadline. Only death/withdrawal of an already cleared candidate allows substitution, or a court order proving INEC portal failure.

IMPACT ON ADC PRESIDENTIAL ON JAN 15:

South East (Abia 17, Enugu 17, Ebonyi 13 = 47 LGAs): ADC needs SE votes to balance NW. With no guber, those votes will go to NDC/Peter Obi and LP.

South South (Cross River 18): Cross River is the gateway to Akwa Ibom, where NDC also has no guber. ADC could have picked it, but blank.

North West (Kano 44 + Katsina 34 = 78 LGAs): This is 78 LGAs of the core NW voting bloc missing. That is more than the entire South East zone. On Jan 15 triple election, voters in Kano and Katsina will see a House ballot with no ADC logo. They will not come out for President.

Projection: ADC will lose 2.5-3.5 million votes in Kano alone due to no mobilization and no agent protection. In the other 6 states, another 1.5 million. Total at risk: 4-5 million votes.

NDC vs ADC:

NDC missing 233 LGAs (30.1%) – larger number, spread across 11 states.
ADC missing 159 LGAs (20.5%) – smaller number, but strategically worse because 44 LGAs are in Kano, the single biggest swing state.

NDC’s problem is breadth. ADC’s problem is depth in the decisive state.

Chief Okoi Obono-Obla