2027: Atiku’s Campaign to Discredit Tinubu, By Bayo Olupohunda

Atiku Abubakar, the ADC’s presidential candidate, has been fighting dirty. His desperation is understandable. The 2027 presidential election is his last shot at the presidency, and he appears determined to deploy everything in his arsenal to send Tinubu back to Bourdillon. For Atiku, the gloves are off now. 2027 is now or never. But he knows defeating Tinubu won’t be a walk in the park. He is too politically experienced to underestimate the strength of his’friend’ and former ally, the man he fondly calls ‘Bola’. Now in his final attempt, he may also have concluded that Tinubu may be difficult to beat, with the power of incumbency, a powerful political structure and an opposition that remains divided. If that is Atiku’s calculation, then the strategy may no longer be simply about defeating Tinubu at the polls but damaging his reputation and presidency before the election.

The strategy may explain why he reportedly engaged a Washington lobbying firm and what the firm has subsequently been doing with allegations concerning the president.
According to reports, the 12-month contract with Von Batten-Montague-York is designed to improve Atiku’s standing among US policymakers, counter narratives from Tinubu’s administration and promote him in Washington circles. The agreement also provides for engagement with members of Congress and US government officials.

The money is not simply being spent on attacking Tinubu. It is also being spent on presenting Atiku himself to Washington as a credible political alternative. Part of the lobbying effort has now focused on Tinubu’s old US forfeiture case. The firm has reportedly submitted Department of Justice records relating to the 1993 case to officials in the Trump administration and members of Congress.

But the case is not new.

The $400,000 forfeiture connected to a heroin investigation has been public knowledge in Nigeria for years. It was reported by online media as far back as 2008. It was also dragged into the 2023 presidential contest. So, Atiku is not uncovering a secret that Nigerians have never heard about. He is taking an old controversy and presenting it to a new audience in Washington. There is nothing wrong with presenting public records to the US government. Atiku is entitled to do so. If he believes the records are relevant to Tinubu’s character or fitness for office, his lawyers and lobbyists can make that case.

But it raises a question many have asked every time the allegations pop up every election cycle: what exactly is Atiku hoping to achieve by taking an allegation that has been in the Nigerian public space for almost two decades back to Washington? The same question applies to the Chicago State University controversy. The issue of whether Tinubu attended and graduated from Chicago State University has already been established. The university has repeatedly confirmed that he attended from 1977 to 1979 and was awarded a Bachelor of Science degree in Business Administration with honours in 1979. During the 2023 legal battle initiated by Atiku, CSU registrar Caleb Westberg also testified under oath that Tinubu attended and graduated from the university. The controversy that remained was over the particular certificate submitted to INEC, not whether Tinubu was a student of the university and graduated from it.

Yet the issue continues to be recycled as though a fresh American document will suddenly shift voters’ decision. This is where Atiku appears to be chasing shadows.
The allegations were already deployed against Tinubu in 2023. Nigerians heard them. The opposition camp made them part of the election campaign. The Chicago State University case became one of the biggest political controversies of that election.

But it neither affected the outcome of the election.

The forfeiture story was also not enough to prevent Tinubu’s victory. So, even if new FBI or DOJ documents provide additional information, why should anyone assume that they will suddenly produce a different political outcome in 2027? They may produce headlines in Washington. They may generate social media arguments in Nigeria and give Atiku’s supporters fresh material with which to attack Tinubu. But whether they will sway Nigerian voters is another matter. This is particularly important because the $1.2 million lobbying contract appears to have a bigger purpose. Atiku is not only taking material about Tinubu to Washington; he is also using the firm to promote his own image in Washington.

In other words, the money is being used for two things: selling Atiku and weakening Tinubu. That is a legitimate political strategy for Atiku’s camp. But it raises the question of whether Atiku has found a more persuasive argument for why he should replace Tinubu.

The Tinubu administration has some loopholes that an opposition candidate can exploit without going back to 1993. The economy remains a major pain point. So are insecurity, unemployment, the cost of living and declining purchasing power. Nigerians have real grievances about the government, but many also understand the administration is just three years in the saddle and inherited. An opposition candidate should be able to build a campaign around them. The bigger challenge for Atiku is that Tinubu has incumbency, has the machinery of the ruling party and some opposition figures behind him and has built a formidable political network. The opposition, meanwhile, remains divided.

That makes challenging the man famously called Jagaban difficult. Perhaps this is why damaging Tinubu’s reputation has become such an important part of Atiku’s political strategy. But there is a danger in taking the battle outside Nigeria. Atiku is a former vice-president and a presidential candidate. When he spends $1.2 million on a lobbying operation that presents both his own credentials and damaging information about the Nigerian president to US policymakers, it becomes more than just politics and an election. It becomes an international campaign to shape how outsiders see Nigeria’s leadership, of which he is an integral part. Atiku can argue that he is simply presenting facts about the president, but should an aspiring Nigerian president make Washington such an important theatre of his campaign against another Nigerian politician?

More importantly, if the same allegations could not prevent Tinubu from winning in 2023, it is difficult to see why Atiku should expect them alone to defeat him in 2027.
The opposition’s job is not merely to remind Nigerians that Tinubu has controversies in his past. Nigerians already know. Their job is to convince voters that the alternative to Tinubu is better. Atiku therefore faces a much bigger task. He has to explain why he should be president and show Nigerians what he would do differently. He has to offer a more convincing answer to the economy, insecurity and other problems facing the country. He has to sell himself, not just Tinubu’s weaknesses.

Follow Bayo Olupohunda on X @Bayo Olupohunda