New Study Says Nigeria’s 2019 Border Closure Failed to End Smuggling, Instead Reshaped Illicit Trade

A new academic study has challenged claims that Nigeria’s 2019 land-border closure successfully suppressed smuggling, arguing that the policy instead disrupted formal trade while illicit networks adapted through unofficial routes, informal payments and negotiated access at checkpoints.

The research, by Onyekachi E. Nnabuihe and Ifeanyi Onwuzuruigbo, was published in Africa Today, Volume 72, Number 2, under the title “Checkpoint  Politics, Cross-Border Exchanges, and Nigeria’s 2019 Border Closure Policy.” Indiana University Press confirms the study appeared on pages 93–112 of the journal.

Nigeria partially closed its land borders in August 2019 and later halted land-based trade more broadly, with the government citing concerns over smuggling, particularly rice imports, illicit movement of subsidised petrol and security threats. The policy affected major crossings including the Seme border with Benin Republic.

According to Nnabuihe’s subsequent analysis published by The Conversation Africa, the closure did not destroy established smuggling networks. Instead, the study argues, traders and other border users changed their methods, increasingly relying on unofficial crossing points, smaller consignments, multiple intermediaries and informal negotiations with officials.

The researchers describe this phenomenon as “checkpoint politics” — a system in which movement across borders can depend less on formal regulations and more on bargaining over who or what is permitted to pass and under what conditions.

The study was based on interviews, archival material, government documents, newspaper reports and academic literature, with fieldwork conducted between March 2020 and July 2022. Its authors argue that longstanding ethnic, economic and family ties across Nigeria’s borders with Benin, Niger and other neighbouring countries made a complete shutdown of informal cross-border activity difficult.

The findings are broadly consistent with earlier assessments of Nigeria’s border policy by international institutions. The World Bank said the closure severely disrupted cross-border commerce and noted that trade restrictions, including the 2019 shutdown, were already contributing to higher prices and weakened purchasing power before the COVID-19 pandemic.

A World Bank assessment also noted that informal trade and smuggling constitute a significant part of economic activity across West African borders, while longstanding differences in tariffs and trade policies between Nigeria and neighbouring countries have created strong incentives for informal commerce.

The economic consequences were particularly significant for border communities. Research from the OECD at the time found that the closure disrupted livelihoods in communities dependent on Nigerian markets and contributed to rising prices of rice and other food products within Nigeria.

The latest study does not suggest the closure produced no benefits whatsoever. Previous assessments found that restrictions reduced some formal imports and may have temporarily supported parts of domestic agricultural production. Other empirical research also reported higher customs revenues and increased agricultural exports during portions of the closure period.

However, the researchers contend that these gains did not amount to eliminating smuggling because enforcement weaknesses, porous borders and corruption allowed underground networks to adjust.

They consequently recommend moving away from blanket border closures towards intelligence-led enforcement focused on organised smuggling, while expanding legal channels for small-scale cross-border commerce.

The authors also advocate stronger cooperation between Nigerian border agencies, improved intelligence sharing with neighbouring countries, modern surveillance systems and more harmonised regional trade policies.

Their central argument is that border security policies are unlikely to succeed when they ignore the economic realities of border communities whose livelihoods and social relationships extend across national boundaries.