An INCUMBENT in Nigeria has all the advantages. Rarely do they get defeated at an elections, where they have no intentions of vacating the position of President.
It has been known to happen as with Old Black hat Goodluck Ebele Jonathan but, rare as it were, he brought that largely upon himself, in my view.
An incumbent makes as many friends as he makes enemies when in position. The journey that brought him to the seat involved negotiations, trade-offs, concessions and odd partnerships.
All of those parties consider themselves natural stakeholders to a Presidency.
Such is the complexity of the diversity of Nigeria. Rarely are the voters a consideration once a person assumes power and position. The beast must be fed and remain happy during any tenure.
HOWEVER, there is always a chance that things go awry. Chances are that a President can prove himself to be loyal to the stakeholders or even useless to the electorate until the next elections.
Similarly, the position accords the incumbent control over much of what determines an election in Nigeria.
Aside the Stakeholders and/or Gatekeepers are those laments of electoral machinery that immediately fall under a president’s purview.
There is the supposedly Independent Electoral body at federal and state levels, INEC and SIECs. There are the enforcement units such as the Nigeria Police and ofcourse the all-powerful State Governors.
As elections get closer, you witness the usual migration of “opposition politicians” towards the ruling party, like the wildebeest in the Serengeti in search of watering holes.
IF President Tinubu is to win again, he will have less to worry about from a fragmented opposition while having the elections machinery on his side.
The problem, if it arises, will come from the Creditors who got him there and the Gatekeepers, if they turn on him out of dissatisfaction.
President Tinubu has shown himself to be a highly-skilled player in nigetian politics. Surely, he will negotiate his way towards a return.
Will the feelings and complaints of the ordinary nigetian voters matter? Maybe just something to worry about on another day, post-elwctions.
And the foreign powers? The Americans have shown great selfish interest in Nigeria but only for their own self-serving reasons.
They would love a President they can manipulate if not outrightly control. Their positioning in all this will matter.
Nigeria remains a place of strategic positioning in an attempt to curb the alliances of the Sahel leaning too close to America’s “sworn enemies”.
THERFORE, if President Tinubu is to win again, he must hone his negotiation an juggling skills.
If he succeds in doing so, the City Boy Movement, in a head-on clash with the Village Boy Movement gangs or even a currently-confused opposition will matter as little as the voters themselves.
Does he have a natural advantage? I believe he does.
It is left to him how many he can satisfy and/or pacify in the remaining months.
Soon enough, the Gloves will be Off!
The battle is coming!
GoodAfternoon @everyone
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