In February 2024, during a political event, Professor Pat Utomi declared: “Nigeria is dying.” He went further to predict that the Naira could collapse to as low as ₦10,000 to the dollar, tying this grim prophecy to insecurity, lack of production, and distrust in leadership.
His alarm reflected, in part, genuine concern but, as time has shown, by sounding apocalyptic, he was overdramatic and unrestrained. He was embarrassingly wrong.
Why did such a well-versed economist miss so badly?
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One reason is that economists often project based on historical patterns. At the time, Nigeria’s economic trajectory echoed elements seen in countries like Venezuela or Zimbabwe—where currency instability had once spiraled—prompting cautionary forecasts.
Speaking in a politically charged environment as a Labour Party chieftain also may have sharpened his rhetoric. Yet, what he failed to anticipate was the multipronged approach of the Tinubu administration—bold subsidy removals, forex unification, central bank reforms, and investment courting—that kept Nigeria from plunging into Venezuela-style hyperinflation.
Though the Naira briefly neared ₦2,000/$ in forecasts, it stabilized below ₦1,500/$—never reaching Utomi’s catastrophic scenario.
The prediction also failed to reckon with the intense deployment by security operatives of both kinetic and non-kinetic solutions to wrest the country from bad actors, alongside other initiatives of the administration to salvage the fragile production base and keep the economy moving.
It is important to call out Professor Utomi for this outrageous prediction so that he and other experts learn enduring lessons: the need to be circumspect, to separate political passions from professional judgment, and to appreciate the power and consequences of words in fragile times.
But it is equally important not to mock him to scorn. An alarm has its place in a nation’s evolution. Sometimes, even exaggerated fear can remind leaders to act decisively.
Professor Utomi should not be reduced to a “Professor of doom.” His lifelong contributions to economic thought, industrialization, and national development far outweigh one failed forecast.
To err is human. To be magnanimous in victory is patriotic. Instead of mocking, let us correct with humility, extract the wisdom, and move on with the urgent task of building a truly productive Nigeria.
